MENA Renewables Brief 2023 Methodology

Data sources

The data is gathered from Global Energy Monitor's Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker, specifically the December 2023 versions.

The solar and wind datasets are available for download beginning December 2023. Currently released datasets can be found here (solar) and here (wind) under a creative commons license.

Both the Global Wind Power Tracker and the Global Solar Power Tracker have identified some projects under our nominal capacity threshold, 10 MW for wind, 10 MW for solar in the MENA region, and 20 MW for solar globally. These sub-threshold data are included in the tracker when the data is a readily available. However, in order to make a fair comparison between countries across the region none of the sub-threshold data was considered in this report.

Terminology

The following terms are used throughout the text:

Large utility-scale: This refers to any project that is large enough to be included in the Global Wind and Global Solar Power Trackers. GEM catalogs all solar and wind installations greater than 10 MW in the MENA region. In the text of the brief this is use synonymously with utility-scale.

Announced: Proposed projects that have been described in corporate or government plans or media releases but have not yet taken concrete steps such as applying for permits.

Pre-construction: Projects that are actively moving forward in seeking governmental approvals, land rights, or financing.

Construction: Site preparation and equipment installation are underway.

Operating: The project has been formally commissioned; commercial operation has begun.

Prospective: Any project that are either announced, in pre-construction, or under construction. To get perspective capacity numbers we sum the capacity of projects that are announced, plus the capacity of projects that are in pre-construction, plus the capacity of projects that are under construction.

Methodology

Data collection is done via secondary research by GEM staff; the Solar and Wind methodology pages describes the process a bit more. The Solar and Wind FAQ pages also provide information about the datasets.

Countries considered in this brief

This report is focused on Arabic-speaking nations of the Middle East and North Africa. Global Energy Monitor tracks projects located in independent states or non-self-governing territories, including Western Sahara and Palestine, separately. Throughout the text of the report, and this wiki page, language like "country" and "nation" are used to refer to all 23 locations provided below:

Table 1: Countries used in MENA brief

Algeria

Bahrain

Comoros

Djibouti

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Mauritania

Morocco

Oman

Palestine

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Somalia

Sudan

Syria

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

Identifying green hydrogen and export projects

The technology to transport pure hydrogen via long distances is not yet well developed or even demonstrated. However, ammonia presents much less of a technical hurdle for transport, and can be used instead of pure hydrogen, for the production of fertilizer. Therefore some projects are explicitly planned for green ammonia rather than hydrogen. In these cases we still have grouped them under the umbrella "hydrogen" term. Here is an example from the Hyport Duqm solar farm that uses both ammonia and hydrogen. In our calculations the entire capacity of this project is grouped as a "hydrogen" project.

The data sources for each project in the Global Wind Power Tracker and Global Solar Power Tracker in the MENA region were reviewed to determine if the project was specifically intended for green hydrogen (or ammonia) or for direct electricity export abroad. Unless a capacity breakdown is provided, we assume 100% of the electricity of that project will be for that purpose (hydrogen or export) and that the capacity will be equally split between wind and solar. There are cases where a company will remark that the project might also provide local electricity, e.g. However, unless this claim is substantiated with specifics with how much capacity will be for local access, it is assumed that the entirety of the project will be for hydrogen production or export.

Determining if a project's electricity will end up being shipped via long-distance transmission cables abroad can be difficult. The data sources for each project in the Global Wind Power Tracker and Global Solar Power Tracker in the MENA region were reviewed to see it that project was explicitly for direct export. There were a few cases (e.g. the Special Economic Zone Topeka solar farm in Libya) where the potential for export was mentioned but unless the project was specifically dedicated for export it was not included.

Electricity generation determinations

Data from Ember's Electricity Data Explorer (February 9, 2022 version) were used to determine electricity usage by country by fuel type. Ember's "Other Fossil" category was assumed to represent Oil-fired power generation in calculating the percentage of electricity used in the MENA region that is gas and oil-fired.

Solar and wind capacity needed to match electricity generation of gas

Because wind and solar technologies can only generate electricity when the wind blows and when the sun shines, it is important to consider how much electricity a project will generate and not just the capacity of a project. Using capacity numbers from GEM's Global Gas Power Tracker data (January 2023 version) and generation numbers from Ember's electricity data release, we calculated the total oil and gas capacity for all countries in the region as well as the total gas generation for the region, giving us a regional gas capacity factor of 37.5%. This capacity factor was also used for oil-fired power plants in the region. Likewise, regional capacity factors for wind power and solar power were calculated using capacity and generation numbers from Electricity Data Explorer (February 9, 2022 version). The capacity factors are shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2: Regional Capacity Factors

Fuel Type	Regional Capacity Factor
Oil and Gas	37.5%
Wind	30%
Solar	22%

Using these capacity factors, the and the capacity values from GEM's Global Oil and Gas Power Tracker data (August 2023 version) the electricity generation from oil and gas power plants were calculated as follows:

Oil and Gas Generation [TWh] = Oil and Gas Capacity [GW] * Oil and Gas Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.24 days/year / 1000

To get the equivalent wind and solar capacity needed for that amount of generation we assumed equal parts wind power and solar power. The calculation was as follows

Equivalent Renewables Capacity [GW] = Oil and Gas Generation / 2 * 1000 / (Solar Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.24 days/year) + Oil and Gas Generation / 2 * 1000 (Wind Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.24 days/year)

This will simplify down to:

Equivalent Renewables Capacity [GW] = Oil and Gas Capacity [GW] / 2 * Oil and Gas Capacity Factor / Solar Capacity Factor + Oil and Gas Capacity [GW] / 2 * Oil and Gas Capacity Factor / Wind Capacity Factor

Electricity Target Calculations

Morocco

Morocco aims to have 52% of their electricity generation be from renewables by 2030. In order to calculate what capacity would be needed to meet this the overall generation target we first identified Morocco's overall electricity generation as described in the above section and determined this is 41.26 TWh/year. Assuming generation remains constant up to 2030, 52% of this amount is calculated at 21.46 TWh/year which is the amount of renewable energy generation required. The current electricity generation in Morocco from renewables was calculated using numbers from Electricity Data Explorer (February 9, 2022 version) at 8.14 TWh/year. That leaves a remaining 8.14 TWh of generation needed to be added by 2030. Assuming half of that 8.14 TWh comes from wind power and half from solar we calculate:

Solar Capacity Needed [GW] = 8.14 [TWh] / 2 *1000 / (Solar Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.34 days/year) = 2.11 GW

Wind Capacity Needed [GW] = 8.14 [TWh] / 2 *1000 / (Wind Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.34 days/year) = 1.55 GW

And therefore that the total renewables generation is 3.66 GW.

Oman

Oman's 2030 goal is to have 20% of their electricity be fed by renewables. However, in addition to providing a percentage target they also supply a generation target of 10 TWh/year. This generation target was used to determine how much of Oman's prospective capacity that is not specifically for hydrogen production would be needed to to come online in order to meet this target. Oman has 1 GW of prospective non-hydrogen wind capacity and 13.16 GW of prospective non-hydrogen solar capacity. The expected generation equivalent of these capacities were calculated using the regional wind and solar capacity factors and amount to 2.6 TWh/year for wind and 25.4 TWh/year for solar, or combined 28.0 TWh/year of renewables. In order to reach the goal of 10 TWh/year, 36% of the 28 TWh/year must be realized by 2030.

Capacity needed to meet global average of consumption

In calculating how much wind and solar capacity would be needed in Mauritania and Djibouti in order for these countries to have adequate electricity we assume each resident would need 3000 kWh/year. 3105 kWh/year was the global average in 2014 according to The World Bank, but more recent data were not available. Populations for these countries were also gathered from the World Bank population dataset for 2022. The required generation country-wide is then calculated as the population times 3000kWh/year. Existing electricity generation for these countries was calculated using numbers from Electricity Data Explorer (February 9, 2022 version). The difference between the required generation in order to provide adequate electricity to the entire population and the existing generation was calculated. Then assuming equal generation between wind and solar the equivalent capacity was calculated using regional wind and solar capacity factors.

Solar Capacity Needed [GW] = New Generation Needed [TWh] / 2 *1000 / (Solar Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.34 days/year)

Wind Capacity Needed [GW] = New Generation Needed [TWh] / 2 *1000 / (Wind Capacity Factor * 24 hrs/day * 365.34 days/year)

Table 3: What it would take for adequate electricity in Djibouti and Mauritania

Country	Population (Millions)	Current Electricity Generation (TWh/year)	Adequate Electricity Generation (TWh/year)	New Generation Needed to Become Adequate (TWh/year)	Equivalent Renewables Capacity to Generate Adequate Electricity (GW)
Djibouti	1.12	0.12	3.36	3.30	1.48
Mauritania	4.74	3.76	14.21	12.33	5.54

It's worth noting that even if these countries realize wind and solar projects with this amount of capacity, the infrastructure to carry this electricity to residents also has to be created in order to achieve universal adequate electricity access.

Tracing Masdar and ACWA Power projects

The projects in the Global Solar and Global Wind Power Tracker were searched to identify projects where Masdar or ACWA Power was listed as the operator, owner, or otherwise noted as being involved. For projects in the latter category the data sources for those projects were review to confirm the company was involved. A literature search of recent project announcements was also performed for countries in the Global Solar and Global Wind Power Trackers that had not been researched within four months of when the brief was released. The literature search resulted in eight additional projects that were added to the projects already identified in the Global Solar and Global Wind Power Trackers. The operating and prospective capacity for each company was computed globally and then also only within their respective country headquarters (United Arab Emirates for Masdar and Saudi Arabia for ACWA Power).

Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

Figure 1 was created by summing the operating solar and wind capacities above at or above 10 MW for all countries in the region for the May 2022 Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker as well as for the December 2023 Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker. The increase in operating capacity was spelled out for all countries with newly added capacity over 300 MW. Only countries with a change in operating capacity are shown.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Figure 2 was created by summing the prospective solar and wind capacities at or above 10 MW for all countries in the region for the May 2022 Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker as well as for the December 2023 Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker. The increase in operating capacity was spelled out for all countries displayed. Only countries with an absolute change of 100 MW are shown

Figure 3

Figure 3

Figure 3 was created by summing the capacity of utility-scale solar and wind projects at or above 10 MW that were under construction, in pre-construction, and announced by country. The plot is arranged by showing the country with the most total prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity at the top and stepping down from there. For ledgibility not all countries are shown, rather the remaining 13 countries were grouped together and are displayed under "Other countries combined".

Figure 4

Figure 4

Figure 4 was generated by first summing the operating gas and oil power plant capacity in the region from the Global Oil and Gas Power Plant database. Then, using the methodology described in above, the amount of power these plants generate was estimated. The amount of wind and solar capacity needed to generate that same amount of power was calculated and displayed. For each country the prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity were summed by country from the Global Solar Power Tracker and the Global Wind Power Tracker subtracting project capacities that are earmarked for green hydrogen or export.

Figure 5

Figure 5

Figure 5 was produced by looking at the location and capacity of all wind and solar projects 10 MW and larger globally from GEM's Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker that were owned, operated, or being developed by Masdar or ACWA Power.

Tables

Table 1

Table 1