Brazil Atlantic Coast Offshore Wind Development
Introduction
Brazil, which currently does not have any offshore wind farms installed or under construction, is planning to install more offshore wind than the rest of the world has built combined.[1] Major objectives for Brazil are to not only supply power to population-dense areas but to create a parallel trade market to oil exports through large scale production of hydrogen through these wind projects.[2][3] In 2020, Brazil's 2050 National Energy Plan (NEP 2050) predicted the potential installed capacity of offshore wind will reach 16GW by 2050.[4][5]
As of March 2023, Brazil's Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources(IBAMA) had received environmental license applications for 74 offshore wind projects totaling 183GW.[6] The full list of the applicants and the proposed site are shown in OFFSHORE WIND COMPLEXES PROJECTS WITH LICENSING PROCESSES ENVIRONMENTAL COURSES OPEN AT IBAMA.[7] In September 2023, the number of projects IBAMA received increased to 78, totaling 189GW.[8] Brazil plans to have its first offshore wind farms operational by 2027.[5] Map of the 78 projects can be seen here: Map of offshore wind energy in Brazil[9]
Oil giants Petrobras and Equinor have also started to explore offshore wind projects, with 7 under study, totaling 14.5 GW. Other major companies assessing the feasibility of projects include Corio Generation, EDP Renewables, Engie, and Shell.[10] Among the 189GW IBMA received by September 2023, the top three owners of these offshore wind projects are Chinese company Shizen(17,475MW), Shell(17,080MW), and Ventos do Atlântico(15,228MW).[9]
While wind power is on the rise, hydropower dominates domestic energy production in Brazil. However, chronically low rainfall over the past decade has led to significantly decreased amounts of power, especially during the dry season and droughts.[11]
Brazil ranks first in Latin America for utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with 27 GW installed. The country also leads in prospective utility-scale solar and wind by 2030, at 217 GW.[12]
At the same time, fossil fuels still loom large as an economic driver in the country. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the relevance of Brazil, which will become responsible for the production of about 50% of the world’s offshore oil in 2040.[13] The national oil company, Petrobras, accounts for 73% of Brazil's oil and gas production. While most of this fossil fuel is used in the transportation sector, there are still 14,377 MW worth of gas plants operating in Brazil, and over 60,000 MW are planned, announced, or under construction.[14]
Symbolic Importance
The Amazon rainforest, the so-called "lungs of the planet", resides largely in Brazil. Indigenous people have always been at the forefront of environmental protection in the country, and the group is feeling the greatest effects of expansion, pollution, and state violence. Under the Bolsonaro governmental regime, environmental protections were severely gutted, but the shift in governmental leadership under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as dramatic changes in leadership from the state-owned energy giant Petrobras, signal a shift further toward renewables and forest protection.[15] While some renewable energy projects like onshore wind and solar can encroach on vital ecosystems like the Amazon, offshore wind would largely avoid this symbol of not only Brazil but environmental conservation as a whole.
Brazil's impressive offshore wind potential, coupled with its existing strength in generating electricity from hydropower, onshore wind, solar, and bioenergy, position the country as a leader in the transition to renewable energies.[2]
National Climate Goal
Paris Agreement: Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) communicated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was published on March 21, 2022. Brazil may face sanctions if it does not reach the following goals:[16]
| Target | 2025 | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline: compared to 2005 levels | |||
| GHG Emissions | reduce 37% | reduce 50% | Climate Neutrality |
Deforestation: Another aspect to note for Brazil's overall carbon reduction strategy is deforestation. With the Amazon and other forests in the region being some of the world's greatest carbon sinks, rampant deforestation cuts away at the ability to sequester GHGs. While deforestation has decreased under the current political regime, in the decade between 2012 and 2021, Amazon deforestation has increased 185%, with a loss of 4,571 km2 in 2012 to 13,038 km2 in 2021.[17]
According to Climate Transparency's 2020 Report: "Brazil needs to reduce its emissions to below 411 MtCO2 e by 2030 and to below 93 MtCO2 e by 2050 to be within its 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ compatible pathway. Under Brazil’s 2025 NDC target, its emissions would only be limited to 991 MtCO2 e (in 2025) and 890 MtCO2 e (in 2030). Due to the increase in deforestation emissions Brazil is not on track to meet its economy-wide NDC targets set in 2025 and 2030."[17]
Current System Description
Current Power Capacity Mix
Installed capacity captured in Global Energy Monitor's databases by December 2023:
| Energy Source | Installed Capacity |
|---|---|
| Coal | 3,177 MW[19] |
| Oil & Gas | 22,441.1 MW[14] |
| Bioenergy | 13,356 MW[20] |
| Onshore Wind | 26,401.1 MW[1] |
| Solar | 11,797.6 MW[21] |
| Hydropower | 107,685 MW[22] |
| Nuclear | 1,990 MW[23] |
Utility-scale solar energy in Brazil increased 40.9% in 2021, while distributed generation from solar increased 84%.[24]
Prospective Power Capacity
The sector as a whole: The first Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2031) predicts the growth prospects of the power sector. The share of renewable energy is expected to increase 39%, but the use of fossil gas is also expected to increase significantly to 34% by 2031. Solar power is expected to grow by 320% and wind power by 72% from 2021–2031.[17]
| Energy Source | Prospective Capacity | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Announced | Pre-construction | Construction | |
| Coal[19] | 600MW permitted, 726MW pre-permitted[19] | ||
| Oil&Gas[14] | 27,247MW | 31,845.6MW | 4,909.28MW |
| Bioenergy[20] | 1,039MW | 57MW | 410MW |
| Onshore Wind[1] | 3,808MW | 19,313MW | 8790.4MW |
| Offshore Wind[1] | 69,427MW | 58,847MW | |
| Solar[21] | 14,878MW | 34,735MW | 7,390.5 MW |
| Hydropower[22] | 19,987Mw | 142MW | |
| Nuclear[25] | 1,405MW | ||
Brazil has more than 100 GW of offshore wind energy projects registered for environmental impact assessment by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources(IBAMA).[26] By September 2023, environmental investigation licenses linked to a total capacity of 189GW.[8][6][27]
Renewable in Brazil
The National Energy Plan (PNE): PNE 2030 is the energy resources planning study by the Brazilian government. Carried out by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), it supports the government's long-term strategy in the expansion of the energy sector. The PNE calls for 45% renewable energy by 2030.[28]
In 2021, Brazil's government released the 2031 TEN-YEAR ENERGY EXPANSION PLAN(Known as PDE in the Portuguese acronym).[29] In the ten-year plan, the "Reference Expansion" scenario presented the modeling study reflecting the current energy policies, projects in the pipeline, and the latest NDC commitment. The projected renewable capacity from this scenario is 28.536GW from wind and 8.683GW from solar. Other energy sources such as hydropower and bioenergy account for 125.984GW and 16.295GW, respectively.[30] Also, the PDE 2031 Reference Scenario estimated that:[30]
- (i) the share of renewable energies in the Brazilian energy matrix should increase, reaching a level of 48% in 2031.
- (ii) the installed capacity of Brazilian electricity generation is expected to reach a level of renewability of 83% in 2031.
Major Offshore Wind Projects
As of 2023, there are more than 70 offshore wind projects submitted applications to IBAMA.[8] The full list and locations of these projects can be seen in: Projects with Licensing Processes Environmental Courses Open at IBAMA, Mar 28 2023. By far the largest of these wind projects is the Ventos Do Sul offshore wind farm (Complexo Eólico Marítimo Ventos do Sul) in Balneário Pinhal, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Planned to go online in 2027, this project boasts a 6,507 MW nameplate capacity.[31] The farm is designed to include 482 turbines of 13.5 MW each.[32]
Offshore Wind Projects from Global Wind Power Tracker, GEM(2023)[1]
97 offshore wind licenses were applied for between 2019 and April 2024, according to Ipama.[33]
Offshore Wind Potential
Several estimations show the great potential of offshore wind in the country - In 2019, the World Bank estimated that there's up to 1.2 TW of offshore wind potential off the Atlantic Coast, with 480GW of bottom fixed and 748GW of floating projects.[5][6] In 2020, Brazil’s Energy Research Office(Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, EPE), which aims to support the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), estimated the potential of offshore wind in Brazil is approximately 700 GW.[26][34] More updated estimates from the world bank describe a technical potential of over 1,200 GW, consisting of 480 GW of fixed-bottom and 748 GW of floating.[35]
Three areas in the northeast, southeast, and south parts of the country are considered "most attractive" for offshore wind development due to their proximity to load centers. These areas will likely see overlaps in project areas, which will increase competition that might favor larger developers.[36] The Northeast region of Brazil is also expected to have the cheapest costs due to its high wind speeds, which reach 7-10 m/s, whereas the Southeast and South regions have wind resources of 8 m/s each.[35]
Potential impacts from offshore wind expansion
National Impacts
Much of the energy produced is going to be exported directly or indirectly as green hydrogen. Responding to this, just transition groups like Instituto Verdeluz have asserted: "We don’t think it is fair that Europe promotes its energy transition at the expense of the environment and local communities in developing countries, which is the case of Brazil, more specifically Ceará, since the renewable energies that are being installed here aim to produce green hydrogen to be sold in the international market, more specifically the European market. In low-income communities in the state of Ceará, people are being arrested for energy theft because they cannot afford to pay their electricity bills, since the energy transition in Europe has also increased the global price of energy, given the decrease in the supply of fossil fuels while demand has remained the same."[37]
Challenges to OSW development
There are several challenges hindering Brazil's offshore wind development. High upfront costs in a nascent market make investors cautious, so concessional financing (both public and private) would help ease these burdens. Access to financing will determine which scenario (Base, Intermediate, and Ambitious) the country is able to explore. Innovative approaches to procurement will be needed to ensure ratepayers do not bear too great of a burden. Grid congestion, as well as a lack of ports infrastructure capable of construction and marshaling, will be barriers to significant increases in capacity.[35]
Fossil Fuel in Brazil
Fossil Fuel Resources and Retirement
Details of the fossil fuel resources in Brazil can be seen in Energy profile: Brazil and Brazil and coal.
Coal mines: Brazil's largest active open pit coal mines are Butiá Leste Mine, Calombo Coal Mine, Cerro Coal Mine, and Seival Coal Mine; a much larger project, the Guaíba Coal Mine in Rio Grande do Sul state, was officially shelved due to public opposition and judicial decisions in 2022.[38]
Oil and Gas: There are 88 oil and gas extraction projects that are operating or in development in Brazil, with an additional nine that were recently discovered. The vast majority of which are operated and at least partially owned by Petrobras.[39]
Brazil is Latin America’s top oil producer. The country owns the largest recoverable ultra-deep oil reserves in the world. By 2030, Brazil is expected to become the world’s fifth largest crude oil exporter.[24] Total oil supply is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d in 2026, according to IEA forecasts.[40] 96.7% of Brazil's oil production comes from offshore resources.[36]
Brazil’s 2021 natural gas production amounted to 134 million cubic meters/day - up 5% from 2020. Associated gas currently represents approximately 80% of Brazil’s gas production, which is expected to reach its peak production of 183 million m³/day by 2028.[24] (Note: much of this goes to transportation rather than electricity.)
Coal Plants: According to the PDE 2031, coal use in Brazil's power sector will decrease by about 33% over the next decade, from 9 TWh in 2021 to 6 TWh in 2031.[17] While Brazil has made some progress in phasing out its existing coal power fleet and cancelling future projects, the country retains more than 3 GW of operating coal plants with uncertain retirement dates. The so-called Just Transition Law, approved in 2022, extended government subsidies and operating dates for some coal-fired power plants through at least 2040. Previous policies had called for subsidies to end by 2027, with the licenses for three coal plants in Santa Catarina state set to expire in 2025.
As documented in GEM's Global Coal Plant Tracker, recent coal plant retirements include the 72 MW Charqueadas power station in 2016 and four units of the Presidente Médici Candiota power station (total capacity 446 MW) in 2017.[19] Another 11 proposed coal units totaling 4990 MW have been cancelled in recent years.[19]
Overview of current fossil fuel impacts
Petrobras:
- Petrobras controls the vast majority of the oil and gas sector in Brazil. Petrobras claims that they will eliminate routine flaring by 2030.[41]
- The pre-salt fields off Brazil's southeastern coast, which account for 75% of national production, are expected to peak by 2030. Petrobras has recently been seeking drilling rights in the Equatorial Margin, a vast region off Brazil’s Northeast coast thought to hold at least 5 billion barrels of oil.[42] In May 2023, Brazil’s national environmental authority IBAMA rejected Petrobras’s bid to drill in Block FZA-M-59 at the western edge of the Equatorial Margin, near the mouth of the Amazon River; however, in September 2023, IBAMA authorized new drilling in Block BM-POT-17 at the eastern edge of the Equatorial Margin, off the coast of Rio Grande do Norte state.[43][44]
- Petrobras 36 incident: In 2001, the world's largest oil platform sank following an explosion. The platform, also known as P-36 or "Spirit of Columbus", was located 130 kilometers off the coast of Brazil on the Roncador Oil Field. On March 15, 2001, two explosions went off on the platform. 11 people died, and the platform sank five days later.[46]
- FCPA Violations: In September of 2018, Petrobras agreed to pay more than $850 million for violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act after allegedly facilitating bribes to Brazilian political leaders.[47]
Oil spills: In 2019, a massive oil spill reached Brazil's northeastern State of Ceará. It was initially addressed by local residents of poor regions in Brazil without any training or equipment, with the government taking over a month to activate its official contingency plan.[48] Ranking as the worst oil spill in Brazilian history, the >5,000-12,000 tonnes spill still has not had its origin confirmed.[49] In early 2022, another oil spill brought approximately 8,000 liters of oil to the same State of Ceará, which is a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dunes, mangroves, and sandy and rocky beaches.[50]
Coal: By 2017, 6,500 ha of abandoned areas were contaminated by heavy metals from coal mining activities.[51] Research in 2020 conducted in 14 areas nearby abandoned mines in the main municipalities of the Santa Catarina carboniferous region showed that local residents generally lack information about heavy metal contamination in the food resources from the open pits. These effects, and the impacts they have had on food security, have been felt most directly by river and fishing communities located in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern coastal regions.[52]
Employment
Employment by the Fossil Fuel Sector
Oil and Gas: From 2006 to 2012, the number of jobs in oil and gas expanded from 703,000 to 6,305,000; however, in 2014 that plummeted to 3,861,000 and has continued to drop to roughly half of the employees the sector had at its recent peak.[53] This number may increase by up to 500,000 with offshore production systems scheduled to start operating by 2030.[54]
Coal: The Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies (DIEESE) estimates that roughly 40,000 Brazilians derive direct or indirect employment from coal-related activities.[55] DIESSE's 2022 report Os trabalhadores em extração e beneficiamento de carvão mineral em Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul reports that 3,607 Brazilians were formally employed in the extraction and processing of mineral coal as of 2019. This represented a loss of 2,509 jobs (a 40% decrease) since 2006, when 6,116 workers were employed in the sector.[56]
Prospective employment from offshore wind sector
According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and the Global Wind Organization (GWO), 15,600 more people will need to be trained between 2022 and 2026 to meet installation demands of 15.6 GW onshore wind and 246 people will be trained for the 11MW offshore wind for that timeframe. Weakening onshore wind construction is expected to drive down the number of workers, but then as offshore wind starts to be installed it will pick back up.[57] In 2023 to 2027, the people needed to be trained for the onshore wind construction will be 12,308 to meet the installation demand of 16GW.[58]
The most ambitious scenario outlined in the World Bank's 2024 report, Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil, would generate 516,000 FTE jobs by 2050 with a National Gross Value Add of USD $168 billion.[35]
Employment by other energy types
Onshore Wind: 63,766 jobs.[59]
Solar: Brazil is in the top 10 countries when it comes to solar PV employment, with over 100,000 jobs in the sector in 2022.[60] This is up from IRENA's 2021 estimate of 115,000.[59] In 2023, the updated IRENA data showed that 241,000 workers were employed in the solar sector in Brazil.[61]
Hydro: 176,860 jobs.[59] In 2023, the number increased to 194,000 according to IRENA's Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023.[61]
Liquid biofuels: 874,200 jobs (168.4k sugarcane cultivation, 167.8k alcohol/ethanol processing, 200k in equipment manufacturing, and 326.9k in biodiesel from 2020 data).[59] In 2023, the number was 856,000 including around 200,000 indirect jobs in equipment manufacturing.[61]
Land availability
Brazil has 7367 km of coastline and 3.5 million kilometers square of maritime space under its jurisdiction.[62] Decree 10,946/2022 and PL 576/2021 issued in 2022 would regulate the use of marine space from energy projects. Offshore wind investors in Brazil seek their guidance through Decree 10,946 on developing offshore wind projects under procedures for allocating the use of offshore areas.[27]
Offshore wind project areas overlap with several other uses and and areas of biodiversity. Increased boat traffic may create tensions with fishers as well as create stress for marine birds, mammals, and reptiles. Higher ambition offshore wind planning scenarios tend to have higher social and environmental risks.[35]
Civil Society Engagement
Instituto Verdeluz: A combination of grassroots collective and NGO, composed mainly of women and traditional communities. This group works with people (fishing communities especially) impacted by offshore wind projects, as well as working to help low-income communities access energy.[37]
Central Única dos Trabalhadores / CUT Brasil: CUT is developing research to understand how the energy transition occurs in the country and how it impacts the working class, carrying out training activities to engage unionists in this agenda, developing educational and communication materials to expand the reach and understanding from our perspective, and acting together with national and international allies to strengthen the guarantee of the just transition.[37]
Other grassroots and non-profit groups working on environmental and social impacts from offshore wind development in Brazil include but are not limited to:
- Instituto E+ Transição Energética.
- World Wildlife Fund.
- Grupo de Análise de Geopolítica Energética.
Permitting
For projects located offshore, across state borders, within federally protected areas, or military sites, licensing falls under the jurisdiction of the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources. Similarly, renewable energy projects that cross municipal boundaries or fall within state protected areas are licensed by the State Environmental Protection Agency, whereas Local Environmental Agencies oversee development that falls entirely within their domain.[63]
Wind, solar, and biomass projects are spearheaded by private developers approaching the Brazilian government, whereas hydropower generation is auctioned off via government-run tender. Prospective developers must join the Brazilian Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization in order to sell the electricity generated. Several licenses are required:[63][64]
- Preliminary environmental license (Licença Ambiental de Instalação): Nationally, this license is the primary environmental requirement as it attests project viability, approves location and design, and provides guidance for subsequent permitting phases. Environmental Impact Assessments are required before this license is approved.
- Installation and construction license
- Environmental operation license (Licença Ambiental de Operação)
- License for potentially polluting activities
- Request for transmission and distribution connection
Offshore wind projects of the scale Brazil aims to build will require an Environmental Impact Study (EIS). The scope of each EIS needs to include the impacts from the wind-energy generating units; the submarine grid connector; the maritime substation; the power transmission grid, including its submarine and underground terrestrial stretch, as well as the air segment up to the connection with the Sistema Interligado Nacional (National Interconnected System or SIN); the terrestrial substation and the exclusive support areas for the work.[65] Environmental Impact Assessments are generally submitted alongside a developer's environmental license application, and depending on the potential impact of the project, a developer may need to conduct a more thorough Environmental Impact Study before licenses are issued.[66]
An EIS needs to include information on potential impacts on humans and ecosystems from the inputs (solid and handled materials), wastes and effluents, noise, vibration, changes in wind patterns due to turbines, invasive species introduction, impacts on birds and bats due to the presence of turbine blades, artificial luminosity, decommissioning plans, and exclusion zones for other maritime activities (navigation, fishing, tourism, gas exploration, etc). Additionally, sites of historical or cultural significance need to be considered.[65]
Assessments are required before environmental, transmission, and distribution licenses are administered, and simplified processes exist for small- and medium-scale projects.[64] Environmental licensing has been a massive obstacle for renewable energy developers. Following a 2014 energy auction, 73% of projects did not qualify due to challenges around environmental licenses, followed by 54 disqualifications in 2015.[63]
Brazil's licensing regime has been described as "incoherent" and hinders deployment of low-carbon energy, namely wind and hydropower. The licensing process suffers from differing nomenclature state-to-state,[63] a lack of a framework for leasing seabed rights,[36] legal uncertainty, difficulty in planning, insufficient staffing and reviews from the regulators, and low-quality Environmental Impact Assessments. Wind power specifically has high capital and managerial requirements. Public participation is a key part of the regulatory process, though local pushback has delayed implementation.[67]
The Brazilian House of Representatives approved an offshore wind regulatory framework in November 2023,[68][69] though amendments related to natural gas generation slowed the discussion in the Senate in August 2024.[70] As of October 2024, this framework has yet to be finalized.
Governmental information
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began his third term with an inauguration speech that promised zero deforestation in the Amazon and 100% renewable electricity. Upon taking office, Lula's administration announced significant changes to the structure of the Ministry of the Environment. The Ministry will now include a revived Secretariat for Climate Change, a newly-created Department for the Protection of Animal Rights, a Secretariat of Bioeconomy, an Extraordinary Secretariat for the Control of Deforestation, and a new National Climate Security Authority. Federal agencies, including the Brazilian Forest Service and the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency, return to being under Ministry control. To oversee and support environmental policy, the administration plans to create a Climate Change Council, headed by Lula himself, with the participation of all government ministries.[71]
Related policies or official papers
While there were no operational offshore wind projects in Brazil as of 2023, several crucial regulations have been approved in recent years:
- In January 2022, the Federal Decree no. 10,946/2022 was published, establishing regulations and guidelines for the use of maritime space and the exploitation of natural resources.[72] [73] The decree came into force in June 2022 to officially regulate the development of offshore energy projects.[4]
- Another regulation approved in 2022 is Bill No. 576/2021. This bill outlines regulations for the exploration of marine space, including the procedures and granting processes for offshore wind projects.[74][4]
- The Brazilian government plans to release an official regulatory framework for future offshore wind development by the end of 2023.[75][8]
Other laws or regulations related to renewable energy development:
- National Adaptation Plan (NAP) from 2016 includes 55 types of policies, plans, and programs aimed at reducing climate risks and considering the effects of climate change on humans, infrastructure, and the natural world.[16]
- PROINFA, (Programme to Foster Electric Power Alternative Sources) provided under Decree No 5,025 in 2004, was created to increase the participation of wind, biomass, and small hydroelectric plants (PCH) in Brazil’s national interconnected transmission system, leading to tax benefits for renewable energies.
- Under ICMS Agreement No 101, certain wind and solar equipment was tax-exempt from 1997-2021.
- Federal taxes are also suspended or levied on the import and sale of equipment, machines, and services for infrastructure projects through the Special Regime of Tax Exemption for Infrastructure Development.[76]
Transmission
Current transmission resources
Brazil is a regional leader with respect to grid investments with one auction seeing record bids totaling USD$8 billion for 10,500 kilometers of transmission infrastructure. China State Grid was the largest auction winner with a bid of USD$3.6 billion to construct 1,513 kilometers of transmission lines.[77][78][79]
Transmission: Brazil has a country-wide interconnected grid of over 100,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines. By 2030, an additional 25,000 miles will expand the grid significantly.[24]
Distribution: Brazil has 102 power distribution companies. Private firms owned by foreign investors prevail in this segment. Large international companies operating in this market include Spanish Ibedrola and Italian ENEL.[24]
International connections: The transmission system responsible for the flow of energy from HPP Itaipu (the major transmission system shared by Brazil and Paraguay) is composed of three transmission lines of alternating current at 765 kV, one line of alternating current at 525 kV, and by two high voltage direct current bipoles (HVDC), in ± 600 kV. Brazil also has electrical interconnections with Argentina, Uruguay, and Venezuela.[11]
Planned interconnections: Listed in the table included in this section, there are 22 major transmission interconnections that should come online by 2026 or 2027.
New transmission needed for offshore wind
While Brazil's transmission and port systems are robust onshore, a large system of converters and submarine cables would be needed to connect new offshore projects to that grid. Brazilian government is investing $9.5 billion in new transmission lines.[80]
The EPE's Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil suggests that new forms of transmission by a hybrid model using AC and DC technologies, or Low Frequency AC technology could be used, which would allow line lengths of around 200 km (longer than AC lines at 60 Hz). These technologies have not been implemented with wind before.[81]
The Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) requires offshore wind projects to comply with several requirements, including Fault Ride Through (FRT), frequency support (response to variations in the grid frequency), voltage support and reactive power (minimum and maximum amount of energy generated and consumed), and active power control and remote operation.[81]
Social and environmental impacts of new transmission
Transmission lines are often built along existing roads and sometimes need to cross indigenous land. The disruption to wild flora and fauna causes tribes to have less access to food resources, and power lines may not provide impacted tribes with energy.[82]
Ownership
Major owners of prospective offshore winds projects
According to the applications received from IBAMA and the database from Global Winder Power Tracker, Chinese company Shizen Energy Group, Shell Wind Energy INC, and Ventos do Atlântico joined by EDP Renováveis Brasil SA and Engie Brasil Energia SA are the top three owners of offshore wind capacities in the pipeline.[9][1]
Ventos do Atlântico, changed name to Ocean Winds Brazil now,[83] is the offshore wind joint-venture between EDPR and ENGIE. The company plans to construct the Ventos Do Sul offshore wind farm. Ocean Winds Brazil is targeting offshore wind capacities through undergoing authorizations at IBAMA, for projects located in Rio de Janeiro, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, and Rio Grande do Sul states. It is already licensed to build Ventos Do Sul.[84]
Petrobras is also leaning into the offshore wind industry, implementing the planning and logistics of large offshore works, so their expertise may be critical to the success of the first offshore projects.[85] Petrobras and Equinor intend to build up to 14.5 GW across 7 offshore wind projects.[86]
Major owners of current fossil capacity
Petrobras, a state-owned Brazilian corporation, is the 65th-largest public company in the world. It is responsible for 93% of Brazil's oil and gas production and owns 98% of the country's refineries.[24]
Until the passage of Law N.9.478 in 1997, Petrobras had a monopoly on oil in Brazil. Petrobras continues to control oil and energy assets in 16 countries worldwide.[87] The industry as a whole in Brazil, in the medium- to long-term, has plans to drill 300 offshore wells, order over 30 new production units, and build 600 km (373 miles) of offshore gas pipelines.[24]
Supply Chain
One of the major hurdles Brazil will have to overcome to build massive amounts of offshore wind is a limited supply of parts. Spare manufacturing capacity in the global wind industry is likely to disappear by 2026, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).[88] while Brazil has a robust supply chain for onshore wind, offshore wind will present significant manufacturing and ports constraints unless significant investments are made.[35]
In contrast, GWEC vice chair Elbia Gannoum has asserted that there is no need to import equipment from China or elsewhere, stating, "[Brazil's] wind power is the result of the most successful industrial policy the country has made – when compared to industry as a whole, not just energy. This is because, from 2013 to 2016, BNDES [the National Bank for Economic and Social Development], our development bank and financier of the sector, imposed conditions of a high degree of localization. Today 80% of turbines are manufactured in Brazil."[89]
Finance
Globally, the cost of capital has increased in recent years which has made local currency financing more expensive. This is particularly evident in Brazil and other emerging economies where local currency financing is more prevalent.[77]
According to the World Bank's Country Director for Brazil, Johannes Zutt, "Climate shocks could push between 800,000 and 3,000,000 Brazilians into extreme poverty as soon as 2030. It is crucial that Brazil accelerate investments towards a resilient and low carbon growth pathway. To take full advantage of its potential, Brazil would need net investments of 0.8 percent of its annual GDP each year between now and 2030."[90]
Brazil's government currently has no plans to offer financial subsidies to encourage the development of offshore wind installations. Instead, it is relying on the continued fall of technology costs to make offshore wind competitive against the rest of the energy sector.[91] However, the Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES) distributed nearly $20 billion to clean energy from 2011-2020 (excluding large hydro) primarily through term loans.[92]
In addition to being a turbine manufacturer, China is expected to play a large role in financing offshore wind in Brazil. China owns a large number of companies in Brazil.[89]
Potential finance for renewable energy development
Wind: Ocean Winds (OW; a 50-50 joint-venture of EDPR and ENGIE), launched OW Brasil in June of 2022, is seeking approval to build 5 new offshore wind projects totaling 15 GW, which includes the Ventos Do Sul offshore wind farm. ENGIE is the second largest private-sector company in Brazil, and EDPR has 795 MW of onshore wind and solar in the country already.[34]
Solar: Investments in approved utility-scale solar energy projects are over $20 billion. An additional $1 billion has been invested in solar distributed generation since 2012, this amount is expected to increase exponentially in the next several years.[24]
Distribution: Brazil has 102 power distribution companies. Private firms owned by foreign investors prevail in this segment. Large international companies operating in this market include Spanish Ibedrola and Italian ENEL. This segment sees annual investment of around $2.2 billion per year, 69% of which is in expansion, 19% in improvement and 12% in renewal of distribution networks.[24]
Finance for fossil fule and other energy type
Oil and Gas: Petrobras's current business plan (2022-2026) calls for an investment of $68 billion of which 84% would be made in exploration and production (E&P) activities. In the long term, Petrobras plans to retain five of its refineries and invest $3.7 billion in feature projects.[24] While the company does invest in renewables to a degree, it has downsized its portfolio in recent years.[93] The company's former CEO, Roberto Castello Branco, suggested in 2019 that renewables are a loss, and oil companies only invest in that sector for marketing purposes.[94] In 2022, Jean Paul Prates, a former senator, took over that position and called for increased investment in renewables.[95]
Brazil´s 2021-2030 Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) forecasts that oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) investments will range from US$ 415 billion to US$ 454 billion during this period.[13] With this investment, it is expected that an overall 38 offshore production platforms from Petrobras, Karoon Energy,[96] Shell,[97] Equinor,[98] and other oil companies will enter operation in this timeframe.[99]
Coal: Under former president Bolsonaro, the Mines and Energy Ministry has published a “programme for the sustainable use of national mineral coal”, which aims to leverage $3.9 billion in investment in coal over the next decade.[100]
Nuclear: The Angra 1 Lifetime Operation Extension (LTO) project is a major nuclear power project in Brazil. In April 2021, U.S. EXIM Bank (EXIM) formalized the funding approval of an Engineering Multiplier Program (EMP) as the operation guarantor. The $23.5 million funding that Santander Bank is providing will enable Angra 1 to operate through 2044. Angra 3 has cost nearly $1.7 billion, and $3 billion more will be needed to complete the project, which is expected to come online in 2028.[24]
Articles and resources
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Related GEM.wiki articles
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References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Global Energy Monitor, Global Wind Power Tracker, December 2023 release.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Brazil underway to quickly become the largest Offshore Wind Country in the World – Quest Floating Wind Energy". questfwe.com. Retrieved 2023-05-12.
- ↑ BRAZIL TO PRODUCE GREEN HYDROGEN FROM OFFSHORE WIND FARMS hydrogentoday, Aug-17-2023
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Global offshore wind: Brazil Norton Rose Fulbright, July 2023
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 "Brazil energy plan sees 16GW of offshore wind by 2050". Recharge | Latest renewable energy news. 2020-07-21. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Brazilian Government Ramps Up Work on Offshore Wind, Green Hydrogen offshoreWind.Biz, July-4-2023
- ↑ COMPLEXOS EÓLICOS OFFSHORE PROJETOS COM PROCESSOS DE LICENCIAMENTO AMBIENTAL ABERTOS NO IBAMA IBAMA, March 24 2023
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Governo quer marco para eólicas offshore ainda em 2023 e mira 189 GW de potencia CNN Brasil, Sep-12-2023
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Map of offshore wind energy in Brazil epbr, retrieved in Nov 2023
- ↑ "Oil majors Equinor and Petrobras to scope 14.5GW offshore wind off Brazil". Retrieved 2023-05-15.
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 "PDE 2031 - English Version". EPE (in português do Brasil). Retrieved 2023-05-09.
- ↑ "Race to the Top: Latin America 2023" (PDF). Globalenergymonitor.org. Retrieved 05/08/2023.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|access-date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ 13.0 13.1 231. "Energy Resource Guide - Brazil - Oil and Gas". International Trade Administration | Trade.gov. Retrieved 2023-05-09.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker," Global Energy Monitor, February 2024.
- ↑ Viveros, Felipe. "Indigenous peoples guard 'the lungs of the planet' for all of us". Retrieved 2023-05-23.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 "Federative Republic of Brazil Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)" (PDF). unfccc.int. March 21, 2022. Retrieved 2023-05-18.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 "Brazil: Climate Transparency Report Comparing G20 Climate Action and Response to the COVID-19 Crisis" (PDF). climate-transparency.org. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Brazil electricity generation by source EMBER, May 2023
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 Global Energy Monitor, Global Coal Plant Tracker, January 2024 release.
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 Global Energy Monitor, Global Bioenergy Power Tracker, November 2023 release.
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Global Energy Monitor, Global Solar Power Tracker, December 2023 release.
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 "Global Energy Monitor, Global Hydropower Tracker, May 2023 release"
- ↑ "Global Energy Monitor, Global Nuclear Power Tracker, October 2023 release."
- ↑ 24.00 24.01 24.02 24.03 24.04 24.05 24.06 24.07 24.08 24.09 24.10 1. "Brazil - Energy". International Trade Administration | Trade.gov. Retrieved 2023-05-09.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ↑ "PDE 2031 - English Version". EPE (in português do Brasil). Retrieved 2023-05-09.
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 Global Wind Report 2022 Global Wind Energy Council, 2022
- ↑ 27.0 27.1 Global Wind Report 2023 Global Wind Energy Council, March-27-2023
- ↑ SÁNCHEZ MOLINA, PILAR (12, 23, 2020). "Brazil hits 7 GW mark, targets 45% renewables by 2050". PV-Magazine.com.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ 2031 TEN-YEAR ENERGY EXPANSION PLAN The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Brazil, Feb-25-2021
- ↑ 30.0 30.1 MME launches English version of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2031 The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Brazil Government, Retrieved in June-6-2023
- ↑ "www.ibama.gov.br/phocadownload/licenciamento/2021-08-19-Usinas-Eolicas.pdf" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 22, 2021. Retrieved November 17, 2021.
- ↑ Adrijana Buljan (2022-06-14). "Ocean Winds Launches OW Brasil, Plans 15 GW of Offshore Wind". Offshore Wind. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ “Projetos com Processos de Licenciamento Ambiental Abertos no Ibama,” Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis, April 4 2024
- ↑ 34.0 34.1 Ocean Winds (2022-06-14). "OW Brasil officially launched in Brazilian offshore wind market - Ocean Winds". Ocean Winds. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ 35.0 35.1 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.5 “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil,” World Bank Group, 2024
- ↑ 36.0 36.1 36.2 “Brazil: a big market for offshore wind, but overlapping projects will trim build-out,” Riviera, November 7 2023
- ↑ 37.0 37.1 37.2 Cardoso Vasconcelos, Isadora (November 2022). "JUST TRANSITIONS: MAPPING PLURAL PERSPECTIVES FROM CIVIL SOCIETY IN BRAZIL AND GERMANY". Publications.iass-potsdam.de.
{{cite web}}: line feed character in|title=at position 18 (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Global Coal Mine Tracker, Global Energy Monitor, April 2023 release.
- ↑ Global Energy Monitor, Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker, March 2024 release.
- ↑ "Brazil - Countries & Regions - IEA". IEA. Retrieved 2023-05-09.
- ↑ "https://petrobras.com.br/en/news/5-facts-about-our-sustainable-operations-that-you-will-like-to-know.htm". petrobras.com.br. Retrieved 2023-05-09.
{{cite web}}: External link in|title= - ↑ Focus: Petrobras eyes global expansion as Brazil hopes fade, sources say REUTERS, June -1 2023
- ↑ Brazil gov’t removes major obstacle for Petrobras exploration in Foz do Amazonas Basin OilNow, Aug 24 2023
- ↑ Biller, David. "Oil drilling project near mouth of Amazon River rejected by Brazil's environmental regulator". Associate Press. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
- ↑ Brazil issues first permits for new oil frontier, reveals first estimates The Brazilian Report, Sep 30 2023
- ↑ "Petrobras P-36 Sinking – The Biggest Oil Rig Sinking In the Oilfield Industry". drillingformulas.com. June 4, 2014.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras Agrees to Pay More Than $850 Million for FCPA Violations". 2018-09-27. Retrieved 2023-05-18.
- ↑ Gram Slattery, Marta Nogueira. "As Brazil's oil industry grows, environmentalists raise red flags". U.S. Retrieved 2023-05-18.
- ↑ Oliveira Soares, Marcelo (January 21, 2022). "The most extensive oil spill registered in tropical oceans (Brazil): the balance sheet of a disaster" (PDF). doi.org. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ “Is there a similarity between the 2019 and 2022 oil spills that occurred on the coast of Ceará (Northeast Brazil)? An analysis based on forensic environmental geochemistry,” Federal University of Ceara, National Institute of Science and Technology in Tropical Marine Environments, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and North Fluminense State University, December 1 2022
- ↑ Degradation by coal mining should be a priority in restoration planning Edilane Rocha-Nicoleite, Gerhard Ernst Overbeck, Sandra Cristina Müller, Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, Pages 202-205, Volume 15, Issue 3, 2017
- ↑ Invisible contaminants and food security in former coal mining areas of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil Blanco, G.D., Sühs, R.B., Brizola, E. et al., Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine volume 16, Article number: 44 (2020)
- ↑ "Brazil Number of Employee: MQ: Oil & Natural Gas | Economic Indicators | CEIC". www.ceicdata.com. Retrieved 2023-05-12.
- ↑ Braga, Brunno (7/23/2018). "Brazil's Oil, Gas Industry Expects To Create 500,000 Jobs By 2020". hartenergy.com.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Brazil extends coal use to 2040 under new 'just transition' law Reuters, Jan-7-2022
- ↑ Os trabalhadores em extração e beneficiamento de carvão mineral em Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul DIEESE, Jan-24-2022
- ↑ "Global Wind Workforce Outlook 2022-2026" (PDF). GWEC.net. 28 September, 2022. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Global Wind Workforce Outlook 2023-2027 Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and the Global Wind Organization (GWO), Oct 2023
- ↑ 59.0 59.1 59.2 59.3 "Renewable Energy Employment by Country". www.irena.org. Retrieved 2023-05-11.
- ↑ IRENA and ILO (2022), Renewable energy and jobs: Annual review 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi and International Labour Organization, Geneva.
- ↑ 61.0 61.1 61.2 Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023 IRENA and ILO (2023), Renewable energy and jobs: Annual review 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi and International Labour Organization, Geneva.
- ↑ Brazil sets legal guidelines for offshore wind projects Upstream, Feb-1-2022
- ↑ 63.0 63.1 63.2 63.3 “Environmental licensing and energy policy regulating utility-scale solar photovoltaic installations in Brazil: status and future perspectives,” Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, April 19 2019
- ↑ 64.0 64.1 “Renewable Energy Laws and Regulations Brazil 2024,” Global Legal Group, September 20 2023
- ↑ 65.0 65.1 "IBAMA Terms of Reference: Offshore Wind Farms" (PDF). IBAMA.gov.br. 2/14/2022.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ “Brazilian Environmental-Impact Assessment System: A Critical Analysis,” WITPress, 2020
- ↑ “The Brazilian renewable energy policy framework: Instrument design and coherence,” University of Leeds and Kaunas University of Technology, 2020
- ↑ “Brazil and Colombia: The emerging powers of offshore wind?,” Dialogue Earth, August 27 2024
- ↑ “Brazil pushing forward with offshore wind, green H2 regulations,” BNAmericas, December 1 2023
- ↑ “Brazil Senate to debate offshore wind power framework,” Brazil Energy Insight, August 18 2024
- ↑ "New Brazilian Administration Signals Environmental Policy Despite Public Unrest". www.cadwalader.com. Retrieved 2023-05-12.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Brazil: Decree regulating the construction and operation of offshore power generation projects is published Baker McKenzie, Feb-4-2022
- ↑ DECRETO Nº 10.946, DE 25 DE JANEIRO DE 2022 GOV.BR, Jan-25-2022
- ↑ Bill No. 576/2021 regulating the exploration of offshore energy potential approved in the Federal Senate Campos Mello Advogados, June-28-2023
- ↑ Exclusive: Brazil aims to pass offshore wind, green hydrogen laws by year-end, energy minister says REUTERS, June 28 2023
- ↑ Luiza Martins Karpavicius (2021-01-21). "Brazil Sources 45% of its Energy from Renewables - Climate Scorecard". Climate Scorecard. Retrieved 2023-05-16.
- ↑ 77.0 77.1 “World Energy Investment 2024,” International Energy Agency, June 2024
- ↑ “Wave of Energy Auctions to Trigger $8.2 Billion in Brazil Spending,” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Retrieved June 11 2024
- ↑ “China's State Grid wins biggest Brazilian power line auction,” The Brazilian Report, December 18 2023
- ↑ "Brazil to invest $9.5 B in power transmission". transformers-magazine.com. March 24, 2023. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ 81.0 81.1 "Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil" (PDF). epe.gov.br. April 30, 2020. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "Brazil to build long-resisted Amazon transmission line on indigenous land". Mongabay Environmental News. 2019-03-13. Retrieved 2023-05-22.
- ↑ OW Brasil officially launched in Brazilian offshore wind market OW Ocean Winds, June 14 2022
- ↑ "66 offshore wind energy projects underway in Brazil". evwind.es. October 10, 2022. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "Walking the tightrope of the Brazilian offshore wind development". IHS Markit. 2023-01-31. Retrieved 2023-05-11.
- ↑ "Petrobras and Equinor sign agreement to evaluate seven offshore wind projects in Brazil". 2023-03-06. Retrieved 2023-05-11.
- ↑ "Petrobas SEC Annual Filing FY 2014". SEC.gov. May 15, 2015. Retrieved 5/9/2023.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|access-date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Millard, Peter (March 30, 2023). "Brazil's Offshore Wind Plans at Risk Due to Global Manufacturing Outlook". BloombergLinea.com.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ 89.0 89.1 Livia Machado-Costa (2022-08-02). "Global Wind Energy Council vice chair: 'Brazil is accelerating offshore wind'". Dialogo Chino. Retrieved 2023-05-16.
- ↑ "Brazil can be both richer and greener: World Bank Group outlines opportunities for climate action and growth". World Bank. Retrieved 2023-05-11.
- ↑ "South America's Anticipated Offshore Wind Boom". www.cadwalader.com. Retrieved 2023-05-12.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Ellis, James (October 2021). "2030 Brazil Roadmap Multiplying the Transition: Market-based solutions for catalyzing clean energy investment in emerging economies" (PDF). CIF.org. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "Brazil's oil giant Petrobras puts wind farms up for sale as renewables retreat begins". Recharge | Latest renewable energy news. 2020-02-04. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ "Brazilian oil giant Petrobras exits renewables business". Recharge | Latest renewable energy news. 2019-08-05. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ "Petrobras' next CEO seen overseeing strategic shift with renewables focus". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ↑ Brazil: Karoon to Drill Second Neon Control Well, after First Well Shows Encouraging Results Offshore Engineer, Feb 21 2023
- ↑ Oil & gas field profile: Gato Do Mato Conventional Oil Field, Brazil Offshore Technology, Nov 15 2023
- ↑ Oil & gas field profile: Pao De Acucar Conventional Gas Field, Brazil Offshore Technology, No 16 2023
- ↑ Brazil’s energy sector forecast to need US$680bn investments in 2022-31 bnamericas, April 7 2022
- ↑ Lo, Joe (12/08/2021). "Brazil plans to prop up coal sector, defying calls for a global phase out". Climate Change News. Retrieved 5/12/2023.
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