Caucasus and Central Asia COP29: Climate and renewables targets

This article is part of the Global Integrated Power Tracker, a project of Global Energy Monitor.

Download full dataset

Report an error

Global Energy Monitor compiled this data on October 24th 2024 in preparation for its report "COP out: Azerbaijan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia building twice as much fossil as non-fossil capacity."

Summary of climate and clean energy targets in Caucasus and Central Asian (CCA) countries

National Determined Contributions (NDCs), Government documents, Government press releases, and news reports were used as sources for collating climate and clean energy targets amongst CCA countries. These targets are summarized in the table below, with additions notes and links to references in the following section.

Country	Climate targets	Current share of renewable energy	Clean energy targets	Absolute renewables target	Fossil Fuel Retirement Plans
Azerbaijan	2050: -40% 1990 GHG emissions, conditional on international support	2023: 20% (share of capacity, including the share of hydro capacity of 15.7%)	2030: 30% renewable electricity capacity	2030: 2 GW total installed renewables (additional)	No current plans
Armenia	2030: -40% 1990 GHG emissions 2050: emissions 2.07 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per capita	2023: 6.8% share of generation (solar), 25.8% (with hydro)	2030: 50% renewable electricity in total generation	2030: 1000 MW solar (total capacity) 2040: 1500 MW solar, 500MW wind (total capacity)	No current plans
Georgia	2030: -35% 1990 GHG emissions; -50-57%, conditional on international support 2050: carbon neutrality	2023: 0.6% (share of generation by wind,   76.1% with hydro	2030: 85% renewable electricity in total generation	2030: 3,992 MW hydropower, 547 MW solar, 750 MW wind (total capacity)	No current plans
Kazakhstan	2030: -15% 1990 GHG emissions; -25%, conditional on international support 2060: carbon neutrality	2023: 5.9% of generation	2030: 15% of generation from renewable energy (incl. hydro and nuclear) 2040: 30% 2050: 50%	2035: 9GW wind; 1.87GW hydropower; 500 MW solar (additional capacity)	Coal (Base scenario) 2030: 0% retired   2040: 50% retired or with CCS 2050: 80% retired or with CCS
Kyrgyzstan	2030: -16% GHG emissions; -44%, conditional on international support, below business-as-usual 2050: carbon neutrality	2023: 0% (wind and solar), 86% (hydro)	10% renewable electricity in generation mix (no target year)	No known capacity target	No current plans
Tajikistan	2030: -30-40% 1990 GHG emissions; -40-50%, conditional on international support 2060 Carbon Neutrality	2023: 0% (non-hydro renewables)	2030: 10% power capacity from non-hydro sources	2030: 1,500 MW hydropower, wind and solar  (additional capacity)	No current plans
Turkmenistan	2030: -20% below business-as-usual	2023: 0%	No known % share target	No know capacity target	No current plans
Uzbekistan	2030: -35% emission intensity compared with 2010. 2060: carbon neutrality	2023: 10% in total generation including hydro, 1% from solar and wind 2024 estimate: 15% (including hydro), ~6% from solar and wind	2030: 40% renewable electricity in total generation (including hydro)	2030: 25-27 GW renewables (total capacity)	No current plans

Countries

Azerbaijan:

• Azerbaijan updated its NDC in 2023, aiming for economy-wide GHG reductions of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
• Azerbaijan’s near-term socioeconomic development strategy targets a 30 percent renewables share of electricity capacity by 2030.[1]
• 30% has been roughly indicated as equating to around 2GW additional wind and solar capacity, while 8GW has been mentioned by the Energy Minister at the 14th session of the IRENA Assembly. More recent announcements from the Ministry suggest 7GW renewable additions by 2030 and a 35% capacity share.

Armenia:

• Armenia updated its NDC in 2021, setting an economy-wide GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels in 2030.
• In December 2023, the Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy of the Republic of Armenia was adopted, with a headline commitment of reducing GHG emissions to 2.07 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per capita by 2050.
• Amendments to Armenia’s Energy Sector Development Strategic Programme indicate 1500 MW solar and 500 MW wind total capacity by 2040, plus a 50% share of renewable energy in final electricity by 2030, 60% by 2040.

Georgia:

• Georgia released a revised first NDC in 2021 that commits to an unconditional emissions reduction target of 35% and a conditional reduction target of 50-57% by 2030 compared to the 1990 baseline.
• In 2023, Georgia also adopted a strategy to reach Carbon Neutrality by 2050.
• The NDC includes a target of achieving a 27.4% share of renewable energy in final energy consumption and 85% in the electricity sector by 2030.
• Georgia’s draft National Energy and Climate Plan estimates the following capacity requirements in-line with the 27.4% share: 3,992 MW hydropower, 547 MW solar, 750 MW wind.

Kazakhstan:

• Kazakhstan updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in June 2023 with unconditional and conditional targets of 15% and 25% GHG reduction by 2030 relative to 1990, respectively.
• In 2023, Kazakhstan also adopted a strategy to reach Carbon Neutrality by 2060.
• A recent presidential decree from June 2024 detailed plans to achieve a 15% share of renewable energy in total generation by 2030, increasing to 30% by 2040 and 50% by 2050.
• The decree from June 2024 also lays out plans to abandon coal-fired generation OR supplement the coal plants with CCS technologies. There’s no plan to retire coal generation by 2030, but the target is to retire 50% of operating coal capacity by 2040 and 80% by 2050. This is under the so-called Base scenario. The decree also refers to the Carbon Neutrality scenario (in order to achieve the targeted Carbon Neutrality by 2060), in which case the share of renewable energy would have to rise to 44% by 2040 and 82% by 2050, and coal-fired generation would have to be fully retired by 2050 (or fully accompanied by CCS).
• Kazakhstan plans to implement the coal plant retirement schedule in 2025 for plants that are older than 30 years.
• The ‘Power sector development to 2035’ document foresees 26.5GW of new power capacity to be built by 2035, including an additional 9GW wind power plants, 500 MW of solar PV additions and 1.87GW hydropower.

Kyrgyz Republic:

• The updated NDC of the Kyrgyz Republic includes an unconditional GHG emissions reduction target of 15.97% by 2030 and a conditional emissions reduction target of 43.62% by 2030, both below a business as usual trajectory. Carbon neutrality is targeted for 2050.
• The National Development Strategy from 2018 references a 10% share in the energy mix from “environmentally friendly” energy sources (that exclude large hydropower), without specifying a target date.

Tajikistan:

• Tajikistan submitted its updated first NDC in 2021, setting an unconditional target of reducing emissions by 30-40% and a conditional target of reducing emissions by 40-50% by 2030 as compared to 1990 levels. Carbon neutrality is targeted for 2060.
• Tajikistan's national development strategy envisages reaching 10 GW power capacity by 2030, with 10% of that total capacity coming from non-hydropower sources. Aligned with the strategy, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources has announced investments aimed at achieving a combined 1,500 MW of large hydro, wind and solar capacity. Previous comments from the Ministry suggested 700 MW utility-scale wind and solar PV.

Turkmenistan:

• Turkmenistan submitted an updated NDC in early 2023 with a stated unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions by 20% in 2030 compared to levels in 2010. However, the NDC also refers to an emissions intensity-based target and projected emissions from the National Strategy of Turkmenistan on Climate Change that would see the country’s emissions double over levels in 2012. Turkmenistan also joined the Global Methane Pledge at COP28, though the efficacy of self reporting leakages remains to be seen.

Uzbekistan:

• In 2021, Uzbekistan published its updated NDC, committing to reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels. Uzbekistan aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
• As per the Transition to a Green Economy Strategy from December 2022, Uzbekistan targeted 15 GW of renewable energy capacity and at least 30% share of renewable power generation by 2030. However, in early 2024, the Senate voted to increase renewable energy targets to 27GW by 2030 and the share of renewable power generation to 40% (including hydropower).

Targeted capacity additions

The capacity targets summarized in the table above include a mix of capacity additions and total installed capacity. To present these values together in the accompanying report figure, all targeted values are as capacity additions. Subtracting the current value of installed capacity from targets expressed as total installed capacity achieved this harmonization of values as capacity additions.