Race to the Top China 2023 Methodology

Data sources

The data is gathered from Global Energy Monitor's Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker, specifically the May 2023 versions.

The January 2023 solar and wind datasets are available for download here (solar) and here (wind) under a creative commons license.

Terminology

The following terms are used throughout the text:

Large utility-scale: This refers to any project that is large enough to be included in the Global Wind and Global Solar Power Trackers. GEM catalogs all solar installations greater than 20 MW and all wind installations greater than 10 MW.

Announced: Proposed projects that have been described in corporate or government plans or media releases but have not yet taken concrete steps such as applying for permits.

Pre-construction: Projects that are actively moving forward in seeking governmental approvals, land rights, or financing.

Construction: Site preparation and equipment installation are underway.

Operating: The project has been formally commissioned; commercial operation has begun.

Prospective: Any project that are either announced, in pre-construction, or under construction. To get perspective capacity numbers we sum the capacity of projects that are announced, plus the capacity of projects that are in pre-construction, plus the capacity of projects that are under construction.

Methodology

Data collection is done via secondary research by GEM staff; the Wind and Solar methodology pages describes the process a bit more. The Wind and Solar FAQ pages also provide information about the datasets.

Provincial estimates for Chinese provinces with undisclosed wind and solar targets

The provincial targets for solar and wind energy are from official sources where available. Provincial targets highlighted in orange color were estimated where official provincial targets were unavailable or unspecified.

Methodology and sources for Table 1

Solar and wind energy targets for Chinese provinces are sourced from official information whenever possible. However, for certain provinces, the targets were estimated due to the unavailability or lack of specificity in official sources. More information on these estimated targets is provided below.

Chongqing

Chongqing has set a target of achieving a combined wind and solar power capacity of 3.7 GW by 2025. Since there is no specific breakdown between wind and solar, we assume an equal distribution of 1.85 GW for each.

Heilongjiang

The wind estimates are derived from Heilongjiang’s goal of reaching 9 GW of wind installations by 2020 and an estimated additional 10 GW of new wind capacity by 2025. Based on these figures, we estimate a cumulative wind capacity of approximately 19 GW by 2025.

For solar, the estimate is based on the target of adding 5.5 GW of new solar installations and an estimated total operating solar capacity of around 5 GW by 2020. Based on these figures, we estimate a cumulative operating solar capacity of approximately 10.5 GW by 2025.

Liaoning

The wind estimate is derived from the target of adding 14 GW of new wind and solar capacity by 2025, with 8 GW specifically designated for wind. Moreover, there is a confirmed operating wind capacity of 9.8 GW as of 2020. Based on these figures, we can estimate a cumulative operating wind capacity of approximately 17.8 GW by 2025 in Liaoning province. For solar capacity, the estimation is based on the target of adding 6 GW of new solar installations by 2025, in addition to the confirmed operating solar capacity of 4 GW in 2020. Taking these values into consideration, it is reasonable to expect a cumulative operating solar capacity of around 10 GW by 2025.

Shaanxi

The wind and solar capacity target specifically for 2025 has not been specified for this province. However, the provincial 14th FYP target for total renewable energy is set at 65 GW. By 2022, Shaanxi had already installed over 30 GW of renewable energy, leaving 35 GW to be achieved by 2025.

In 2022, wind capacity accounted for 38% (11.79 GW) of the total operational renewable energy installations. Assuming this percentage remains consistent, we can estimate that approximately 13.3 GW of wind projects will be completed by the end of 2025. Consequently, the cumulative operating wind capacity by 2025 is expected to reach 25 GW. Solar capacity accounted for 48% (15.16 GW) of the total operational renewable energy installations in 2022. Assuming this percentage remains constant, we can estimate that approximately 16.8 GW of solar projects will be completed by the end of 2025. This would lead to a cumulative operating solar capacity of approximately 31.962GW by 2025.

Tibet

No specific information regarding Tibet's wind energy targets were found.

Xinjiang

Separate targets for the wind and solar contributions to the overall 2025 renewable energy goal in Xinjiang have not been specified. However, the target for renewable energy as a whole is set at 82.4 GW. As of 2022, approximately 41 GW of renewable energy has been achieved, leaving a remaining target of 41.4 GW to be accomplished by 2025. In 2022, wind capacity accounted for 64% of the total cumulative renewable energy installations. Assuming this percentage remains consistent, we can estimate that around 26 GW of wind projects will be completed by the end of 2025. Consequently, the cumulative operating wind capacity by 2025 is expected to reach 52 GW.  

In 2022, solar capacity reached 14.7 GW, which accounted for 36% of the total cumulative renewable energy installations. Assuming this percentage continues, we can estimate that around 14.9 GW of solar projects will be completed by the end of 2025. Additionally, taking into account the solar installation capacity of Xinjiang Corps (1.1 GW) achieved by 2022, and its prospective capacity (3.11 GW) reported to be in development, we can estimate that the targeted cumulative solar capacity for the entire region is 33.54 GW.

Yunnan

No specific information regarding Yunnan's 2025 wind and solar energy targets has been found. However, as of 2021, there were a total of 18.6 GW of wind and solar power projects under development, with 9.7 GW specifically allocated for solar projects. In 2022, there were plans for the construction of 350 photovoltaic projects with a combined installed capacity of 31.7 GW. By combining the new capacity planned for both 2021 and 2022 , the estimated prospective solar  capacity is expected to be slightly over 41 GW (9.7 +31.7). Considering the operating solar capacity in Yunnan in 2022, which stood at 5.85 GW, the estimated cumulative solar capacity by 2025 is projected to reach 47 GW (41 + 5.85), although the actual figure is likely to be even higher.

Integration of coal with renewables

Methodology and sources for Table 3

Qingyang Wind and Solar Demonstration Project, Gansu

The China Huaneng Group’s 8000 MW “Qingyang Wind and Solar Demonstration Project” consists of 4.5 GW of wind and 1.5 GW of solar in Huanxian County, and an additional 2 GW of renewables capacity in neighboring counties, with all output transmitted via 800 kV, 943 km HVDC from Eastern Gansu to Shandong. Huaneng has reported that total shipments on the line will total 28 TWh/ per year, of which 18 TWh/year will be renewables power. This means that the remaining 10 TWh/year will come from Huaneng’s new 2 GW Gansu Zhengning coal-fired power plant. According to bidding announcements and other media reports, an additional 2 GW coal power sponsored by Shandong Energy Group will also supply 10 TWh per year for the transmission line. If the two coal-fired power plants generate at their projected levels, the combined coal power generation would be 20 TWh/year thereby actually exceeding the renewables power for the line.

Hami Renewables Base, Xinjiang

Media reports indicate that coal power capacity feeding the new 800 kV, 2283 km HVDC transmission line from Hami to Chongqing will amount to 4 GW, with renewables capacity at 10.8 GW, including 7 GW wind, 3 GW photovoltaic, and 0.2 GW concentrated solar. Total planned annual shipments are announced as 44 TWh/year, with one of the 2 GW coal power plants explicitly projected to produce 10 TWh per year. GEM assumes the other coal power plant is also targeted to generate 10 TWh/ year, which implies annual coal power plant shipments of 20 TWh, with 24 TWh from renewables.

North Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia

Media reports indicate that the power facilities associated with this base will include 8 GW of photovoltaic capacity, 4 GW of wind, and 4 GW of coal. Power shipments to the Beijing area are projected at “about” 40 TWh per year, with renewables accounting for “over 50%”.    

GEM projects PV output at 14 TWh per year using the Chinese NDRC’s specification of 1,760 hours per year full load equivalent (35,200 total lifetime hours divided by 20 year plant life) as “reasonably expected” operation for advanced technology PV plants in the parts of Inner Mongolia that include North Kubuqi, corresponding to a capacity factor of 20.1%. Wind output is projected at 10.5 TWh per year based on actual reported 2626 hours full load equivalent utilization in 2021 for wind power plants in the parts of Inner Mongolia that include Kubuqi (30.0% capacity factor). GEM assumes 5000 full load equivalent operating hours for the coal power plants as is the case in other areas, yielding 20 TWh per year.

South Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia

This base is reported to consist of 4 MW of wind and 8 GW of solar capacity, supplemented by 4 GW of coal capacity. GEM has calculated outputs from the various generation types in an identical manner as for North Kubuqi:  5000 hours, 20 TWh/year for coal; 1760 hours (20.1% capacity factor), 14 TWh/year for solar; 2626 hours (30.0% capacity factor), 10.5 TWh/year for wind.      

Tenggeli Desert Southeast Renewables Base, Ningxia

This base is reported to include 9 GW of PV and 4 GW wind capacity supplemented by 4 GW coal power capacity, with “40-44” TWh of electricity per year power to be shipped southeast to Hunan Province via an 800 kV, 1,467 km HVDC transmission line. GEM forecasts wind generation at 8 TWh per year based on reported 2,018 average hours per year of full load equivalent utilization (23% capacity factor ) for wind plants in Ningxia in 2021, and PV output of 16 TWh based on the NDRC designated standard of 1,760 average full load equivalent operating hours (20.1% capacity factor) for high technology solar plants in Ningxia. It projects the coal plants to produce 20 TWh, consistent both with 44 TWh total shipments and the reported 5000 hours full load equivalent operation in other areas.

Tenggeli Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia

Media reports indicate this base will consist of 4 GW wind and 9 GW solar (8.8 GW PV, 0.2 GW solar thermal) facilities supplemented by 4 GW new coal power capacity, with output to be shipped externally. Potential full load equivalent operation for the solar facilities is reported to range from 1,650 - 1,730 hours per year; GEM projects annual generation at 15.2 TWh/ year using the midpoint of 1,690 hours (19.3%  capacity factor). It projects wind utilization at 2,322 hours per year full load equivalent (26.5% capacity factor), the mid-point between the 2018 hours reported for neighboring Ningxia and 2626 hours (30.0 % capacity factor ) for Inner Mongolia in 2021, yielding 9.3 TWh of wind output per year. The coal capacity is assumed to operate at 5,000 hours per year, accounting for 20 TWh.      

Sub-threshold Solar calculations

The Global Solar Power Tracker catalogs solar installations over 20 MW and categorizes these projects as “large utility-scale” projects. However, due to the scalable nature of solar, significant amounts of solar powered capacity comes from projects with capacities below GEM’s 20 MW threshold. These so-called “subthreshold” projects represent something like 60% of the total global operating solar fleet. Comparing the Global Solar Power Tracker’s total global operating capacity of 434 GW to IRENA’s 2022 global solar capacity of 1053 GW indicates these “large utility-scale” projects represent only about 41% of all solar. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency estimates that all solar installations greater than 1 MW represent 56% of all solar.

Both the central and provincial governments in China do not distinguish between large utility-scale installations and subthreshold installations and report all current operating and future targets for solar installations as a cumulative number across all scales. Because the Chinese central government reliably reports the total size of their solar fleet every year, we know that China had 393 GW of operating solar at the end of 2022. The Global Solar Power Tracker shows 228 GW of operating solar in China which represents 42% of the total. It is likely that the large majority of the remaining 165 GW of operating solar belong to smaller projects in the form of roof-top, commercial and industrial, and smaller utility-scale installations.

Figures

Figure 1: Total operating large utility-scale solar capacity by year

Figure 1: Total operating large utility-scale solar capacity by year

Figure 1 was produced by summing all of the operating solar capacity above 20 MW for all provinces in China in GEM's Global Solar Power Tracker database for each year beginning in 2010.

Figure 2: Total operating onshore and offshore wind capacity by year

Figure 2: Total operating onshore and offshore wind capacity by year

Figure 2 was produced by summing all of the operating wind capacity above 10 MW for all provinces in China in GEM's Global Wind Power Tracker database for each year beginning in 2005.

Figure 3: Operating large utility-scale solar and wind capacity by province

Figure 3: Operating large utility-scale solar and wind capacity by province

Figure 3 was produced by summing all of the operating wind capacity above 10 MW and solar capacity above 20 MW from GEM's Global Wind Power Tracker database and Global Solar Power Tracker database at the provincial level. For clarity, offshore and onshore wind farms are distinctly identified.

Figure 4: China’s operating and forecasted solar and wind

Figure 4: China’s operating and forecasted solar and wind capacity in relation to its 2030 Central Government Target

Figure 4 stacks up the wind and solar capacities discussed in the report, beginning with the total operating capacity in GEM’s Global Wind Power Tracker (310 GW). The central government reported 365 GW of operating wind power capacity, so there is an addition 55 GW (361-310 = 55) of operating wind capacity in addition to the amount that GEM has cataloged at the project-level. On top of that we add the total prospective wind capacity in the Global Wind Power Tracker (371 GW). Solar additions first include the total amount of solar in GEM’s Global Solar Power Tracker (228 GW). The central government reported 392 GW of operating solar, implying there is 164 GW (392-228 = 164) of operating solar capacity in addition to the 228 GW that GEM tracks at the project-level. Finally figure 4 adds the prospective capacity in the Global Solar Power Tracker (379 GW). Stacking each of these up results in over 1,500 GW of cumulative future wind and solar capacity, far exceeding the 1,200 GW target set by the China central government. Not considered at all in these calculations are future solar installations below GEM’s 20 MW capacity threshold, which we have no data for but will undoubtedly add hundreds of additional GW of capacity.

Figure 5: Prospective large utility-scale solar capacity by province/status (construction, pre-construction, announced)

Figure 5: Prospective large utility-scale solar capacity by province/status (announced, pre-construction, construction)

Figure 5 was produced by summing the operating solar projects above 20 MW from the Global Solar Power Tracker for each province in China that are under construction, that are in pre-construction, and that are announced.

Figure 6: Prospective onshore and offshore wind capacity by province/status (construction, pre-construction, announced)

Figure 6: Prospective onshore and offshore wind capacity by province/status (construction, pre-construction, announced)

Figure 6 was produced by summing the operating wind projects above 10 MW from the Global Wind Power Tracker for each province in China that are under construction, that are in pre-construction, and that are announced. The left side of the figure represents onshore projects, while the right side represents offshore projects.

Maps

Map 1: Operating large utility-scale solar capacity in China

Map 1: Operating large utility-scale solar capacity in China

Map 1 was created by summing the operating solar projects above 20 MW from the Global Solar Power Tracker for each province.

Map 2: Operating wind capacity in China

Map 2: Operating wind capacity in China

Map 2 was created by summing the operating wind projects above 10 MW from the Global Wind Power Tracker for each province.

Map 3: Prospective large utility-scale solar capacity in China

Map 3: Prospective large utility-scale solar capacity in China

Map 3 was produced by looking at the location and capacity of all solar projects 20 MW and larger in China from GEM's Global Solar Power Tracker.

Map 4: Prospective wind farm capacity in Chin

Map 4: Prospective wind farm capacity in China

Map 4 was produced by looking at the location and capacity of all wind projects 10 MW and larger in China from GEM's Global Wind Power Tracker .

Tables

Table 1: 14th FYP provincial targets for wind and solar energy

Province	Solar Operating Capacity (MW)¹⁰	Solar Prospective Capacity (MW)¹⁰	China 14th FYP Cumulative Solar Target¹¹	Wind Operating Capacity (MW)	Wind Prospective Capacity (MW)	China 14th FYP Cumulative Wind Target (MW)
China	227,761	378,622	771,551	310,274	371,075	599,080
Anhui	9,956	7,692	28,000	4,306	5,273	8000
Beijing	51	20	2,510	236	0	300
Chongqing	425	400	1,850	1,093	750	1850
Fujian	451	45	5,000	7,085	6,068	9000
Gansu	11,364	20,393	41,690	18,377	20,746	38530
Guangdong	11,677	16,532	28,000	13,580	37,413	32000
Guangxi	7,241	19,603	15,000	7,286	28,817	24500
Guizhou	11,492	14,885	31,000	4,777	12,173	10800
Hainan	1,105	100	7,458	248	6,900	12300
Hebei	16,018	28,314	54,000	22,910	12,631	43000
Heilongjiang	3,614	2,765	10,500	8,540	9,640	19000
Henan	4,477	2,590	33,330	12,282	13,274	27000
Hubei	11,287	5,738	22,000	5,707	3,898	10000
Hunan	2,791	26,110	13,000	7,862	23,460	12000
Inner Mongolia	14,569	34,214	45,000	40,584	69,653	89000
Jiangsu	5,731	7,556	35,000	19,519	3,209	28000
Jiangxi	6,326	9,081	24,000	4,314	1,774	7000
Jilin	3,131	1,031	8,000	8,830	8,667	22000
Liaoning	2,145	3,869	10,000	10,469	17,744	17800
Ningxia	15,087	20,925	32,500	11,824	6,351	17500
Qinghai	15,488	19,915	45,800	7,228	4,672	16500
Shaanxi	12,810	18,963	31,962	7,564	8,414	25000
Shandong	9,685	33,088	57,000	21,528	6,736	25000
Shanghai	132	44	4,648	1,048	1,106	2600
Shanxi	18,829	13,900	50,000	18,776	7,915	30000
Sichuan	2,225	1,540	10,000	5,085	3,734	10000
Tianjin	1,241	8,315	5,600	1,313	5,278	2000
Tibet	1,385	70	10,000	72	150	Not Found
Xinjiang	17,098	56,422	33,540	22,908	31,640	52000
Yunnan	3,730	3,121	47,163	10,883	7,969	Not Found
Zhejiang	6,203	1,381	28,000	4,042	5,022	6400

Table 2: Renewables Desert Megabases in Northwest China

Renewables Base	Developer	Wind Capacity	Solar Capacity	Total Capacity
North Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia	China Three Gorges Group	4 GW	8 GW	12 GW
South Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia	China Huaneng Group	4 GW	8 GW	12 GW
Tenggeli Desert Renewables Base Southeast, Ningxia	China Energy Investment Group	1.8 GW	9 GW	11 GW
Tenggeli Desert Renewables Base, Inner Mongolia	China Huadian Group	4 GW	8.8 GW	12.8 GW
Tenggeli Desert Renewables Base, Gansu	Gansu Power Investment Group	NA	NA	6 GW
Badanjilin Desert Renewables Base, Gansu	China Energy Investment Group	4.3 GW	6.7 GW	11 GW
Badanjilin Desert Renewables Base, Gansu	Gansu Power Investment Group	NA	NA	6 GW

Table 3: Renewables Bases and Coal

Renewables Base	Associated Transmission Line	Line, Details	Coal Capacity	Renewables Capacity	Estimated Coal Generation, (% of line total)	Estimated Renewables Generation, (% of line total)
Qingyang Wind and Solar Demonstration Project	Gansu to Shandong	800 kV HVDC, 943 km	4 GW	8 GW	20 TWh/year (53%)	18 TWh/year (47%)
Hami Renewables Base	Hami to Chongqing	800 kV HVDC, 2283 km	4 GW	10.8 GW	20 TWh/year (45%)	24 TWh/year (55%)
North Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base	North Kubuqi Desert to Beijing area	NA	4 GW	12 GW	20 TWh/year (43%)	26 TWh/year (57%)
South Kubuqi Desert Renewables Base	NA	NA	4 GW	12 GW	20 TWh/year (45 %)	24 TWh/year (55 %)
Tenggeli Desert Southeast Renewables Base	Ningxia to Hunan	800 kV HVDC, 1487 km	4 GW	13 GW	20 TWh/year (45%)	24 TWh/year (55%)
Tenggeli Desert Inner Mongolia Renewables Base	NA	NA	4 GW	12.2 GW	20 TWh/year (45%)	24 TWh/year (55%)