Race to the Top Western Balkans 2024 Methodology
Data Sources
The data is gathered from Global Energy Monitor's Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker. The solar and wind datasets are available for download here (solar) and here (wind) under a Creative Commons license.
The Global Wind Power Tracker and the Global Solar Power Tracker identified projects that fall under our nominal capacity threshold: 10 megawatts (MW) for wind and 1 MW for operating solar projects and 20 MW for prospective solar projects. The sub-threshold data are included dependent on a readily available government datasets.
Terminology
The following terms are used throughout the text:
- Prospective: projects that are either announced in pre-construction or under construction. Prospective capacity sums up capacity values for announced pre-construction under construction projects.
- Announced: proposed projects that have been mentioned in corporate government plans and/or media but have not yet applied for permits.
- Pre-construction: projects that are actively moving forward in seeking governmental approvals land rights or financing.
- Construction: site preparation and equipment installation are underway.
- Operating: the project has been formally commissioned; commercial operation has begun.
- Shelved: no progress has been observed at the project-level for at least two years or suspension of operation has been announced.
- Cancelled: a cancellation announcement has been made or no progress has been observed for at least four years.
- Utility-scale: a project that is large enough to be included in the Global Wind and Global Solar Power Trackers. GEM catalogs all wind installations greater than 10 MW, all operating solar installations greater 1 MW or more and all announced, pre-construction, construction, and shelved solar installations with capacities greater than 20 MW.
Methodology
GEM staff conduct secondary research to collect data. See Wind and Solar methodology pages and the Wind and Solar FAQ pages for more detail.
Methodology for Comparison from Electricity Generation between Wind-Solar and Gas
Solar: The prospective solar in Western Balkans is 11,075 MW with an expected operational lifespan of 25 years. The capacity factor for solar energy is 14.4%. The capacity factor is calculated using the average values for Southern Europe for 2023 using electricity data from Ember accessed June 10, 2024.
To estimate the total electricity generation over the lifetime of these solar projects, the following formula is used:
- Total Electricity (MWh) = Prospective Capacity (MW) × Lifetime (hours in a year × years of operation) × Capacity Factor
The estimated electricity generation for solar projects over their lifetime is:
- 11,075 MW × (8,760 hours/year × 25 years) × 0.144
- = 342,955,095 MWh
Wind: The prospective wind capacity in Western Balkans is 12,237 MW with an expected operational lifespan of 25 years. The capacity factor for wind energy is 20.59%. The capacity factor for wind is calculated using the averaged national values for 2023 using electricity data from Ember accessed June 10, 2024.
To estimate the total electricity generation over the lifetime of these wind projects, the following formula is used:
- Total Electricity (MWh) = Prospective Capacity (MW) × Lifetime (hours in a year × years of operation) × Capacity Factor
The estimated electricity generation for wind projects over their lifetime is:
- 12,237 MW × (8,760 hours/year × 25 years) × 0.2059
- = 551,792,028 MWh
The combined total electricity generation from wind and solar projects over their lifetime is:
- 342,955,095 MWh + 551,792,028 MWh
- = 894,747,123 MWh
Gas: The prospective oil and gas capacity in Western Balkans is 2,660 MW with an expected operational lifespan of 30 years. GEM estimates the capacity factor for Southern Europe gas plants to be 30.1%.
To estimate the total electricity generation over the lifetime of these gas projects, the following formula is used:
- Total Electricity (MWh) = Prospective Capacity (MW) × Lifetime (hours in a year × years of operation) × Capacity Factor
The estimated electricity generation for gas projects over their lifetime is:
- 2,660 MW × (8,760 hours/year × 30 years) × 0.301
- = 210,413,448 MWh
Comparison of Excess Power from Wind-Solar: The excess power generation from wind and solar projects compared to gas projects is calculated as:
- Total Wind and Solar Electricity (MWh) / Total Gas Electricity (MWh) = 894,747,123 / 210,413,448
- = 4.3 times
The combined wind and solar projects are expected to generate 4.3 times more electricity over their lifetime compared to gas projects.
Methodology for Lifetime Savings from Wind-Solar Generation
To calculate lifetime savings, the total generation from prospective gas and oil power plants in the Western Balkans was calculated and compared with equivalent generation from wind and solar power.
Prospective Gas and Oil Power Plants Capacity and Generation
The region has 2,660 MW of prospective gas and oil power capacity. GEM estimates the capacity factor for Southern Europe gas plants to be 30.1%. Using this capacity factor and an estimated lifetime of 30 years, the estimated lifetime electricity generated is:
- Total Generation = Capacity (MW) × Capacity Factor × Hours per Year × Lifetime (years)
- Total Generation = 2,660 MW × 0.301 × 8,760 hours/year × 30 years
- = 210,413,448 MWh
As per the Final Report on Cost of Energy (LCOE), the LCOE for gas power plants is €98/MWh. Therefore, the estimated total lifetime investment for gas power generation is:
- Total Investment = 210,413,448 MWh × €98/MWh = €20.6 billion
Equivalent Wind and Solar Power Generation
To generate the same amount of electricity using wind and solar power, an even split between these two renewable technologies (wind and solar) was assumed.
- Required Generation per Technology = Total Generation / 2
- = 210,413,448 MWh / 2
- = 105,206,724 MWh
The total lifetime investment for power generation is: Total Investment = Total Generation (MWh) × LCOE (€)
For onshore wind power, the LCOE is estimated to be €66/MWh. The total lifetime investment for wind power generation is:
- Total Investment = 105,206,724 MWh × €66/MWh
- = €6.9 billion
Similarly, for solar, the LCOE is estimated to be €45.4/MWh. The total lifetime investment for solar power generation is:
- Total Investment = 105,206,724 MWh × €45.4/MWh
- = €4.8 billion
The combined total lifetime costs for generating the same amount of electricity as 2,660 MW gas plants using wind and solar is:
- €6.9 billion + €4.8 billion
- = €11.7 billion
Comparison and Savings
The total lifetime cost for wind and solar is €11.7 billion. Compared to the €20.6 billion needed for the investments in gas, the transition to wind and solar power represents savings of almost €9 billion over the lifetime of these projects.
Calculations for Estimating Solar LCOE in Western Balkans
To calculate the average LCOE for solar projects in the Western Balkans, data was extracted from the ETIP Photovoltaics report which included LCOE values for 100 MW utility-scale projects and 1 MW projects across five European cities: Helsinki, Munich, Toulouse, Amsterdam, and Rome. The average LCOE was determined to be €39.77/MWh for 100 MW projects and €60.10/MWh for 1 MW projects.
| City | 2024 LCOE (€/MWh) | City | 2024 LCOE (€/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helsinki | 51.21 | Helsinki | 80.29 |
| Munich | 45.62 | Munich | 69.17 |
| Toulouse | 38.38 | Toulouse | 57.62 |
| Rome | 33.72 | Rome | 49.96 |
| Malaga | 29.90 | Malaga | 43.47 |
| Average | 39.77 | Average | 60.10 |
In the Western Balkans, 72% (8,005 MW) of prospective solar projects are over 100 MW while the remaining 28% (3,070 MW) are between 1 MW and 100 MW. It is assumed that projects with capacities of 100 MW or more would use the LCOE for 100 MW projects while projects between 1 MW and 100 MW would use the LCOE for 1 MW projects.
Extrapolating the average LCOEs from the five European cities, the weighted averages were calculated to estimate the LCOE of all utility-scale solar installations in Western Balkans:
- Weighted Average LCOE = (0.72 × €39.77/MWh) + (0.28 × €60.10/MWh) = €45.4/MWh
This provides an estimate of the LCOE for solar energy in the Western Balkans reflecting the mix of large and small-scale projects and their respective costs.
Methodology for Estimating Capacity Factors from Gas Plants
See the methodology page on estimating carbon dioxide emissions from gas plants for lifetime emissions calculations.
List of Identified Coal-to-Clean Energy Project in Western Balkans
| Renewable Project | Renewable Type | Country | Renewable Capacity | GEM wiki | Coal Project | Coal Project Type | GEM Wiki |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divkovići solar farm | Solar | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 56 | Divkovići solar farm | Tuzla Thermal Power Plant | Coal Plant | Tuzla Thermal Power Plant |
| Oslomej solar farm | Solar | North Macedonia | 100 | Oslomej solar farm | Oslomej power station | Coal Plant/ Mine | Oslomej power station |
| Srednje Kostolačko Ostrvo solar farm | Solar | Serbia | 97 | Srednje Kostolačko Ostrvo solar farm | Kostolac Coal Mine | Coal Mine | Kostolac Coal Mine |
| Gračanica solar farm 1 & 2 | Solar | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 50 | Gračanica solar farm | Gracanica coal mine | Coal Mine | Gracanica coal mine |
| Kosovo A solar farm | Solar | Kosovo | 100 | Kosovo A solar farm | Kosovo A ash dump site | Coal Plant | Kosovo A ash dump site |
| Bitola solar farm | Solar | North Macedonia | 180 | Bitola solar farm | Bitola power station | Coal Plant | Bitola power station |
| Gornja Breza solar farm | Solar | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 15 | Gornja Breza solar farm | Breza coal mine | Coal Mine | Breza coal mine |
Breakdown of Operating Solar Installations by Size
Research process for projects greater than 20 MW
Global Energy Monitor researchers systematically and comprehensively search for and include all solar installations meeting threshold criteria. Open-sourced data sources are exhaustively searched to find all available information for each individual project.
Research process for projects between 1-20 MW
Project phases are incorporated into the tracker using a primarily automated process to identify and de-duplicate installations across a variety of datasets. Projects in this category are mainly captured from government databases and the coverage of the projects between 1-20 MW is subject to the availability of these sources. In the absence of exhaustive datasets, records from TransitionZero’s Solar Asset Mapper are sourced to improve the coverage after being de-duplicated from the existing projects in the dataset.
Research process for projects below 1 MW
Researchers conducted comprehensive research using resources published by official authorities (e.g. government ministries, energy market regulation authorities, national open data portals, bureau of statistics, etc.) and secondary authorities (e.g. solar energy industry associations, research centers, etc.). The type of resources consisted of datasets, reports, and web pages. The results were verified from multiple resources including comparing Global Power Solar Tracker's mutually exclusive group aggregates against IRENA's Renewable capacity statistics.
Results for Western Balkans
| Country | Capacity 20 MW+ | Capacity 1-20 MW | Capacity below 1 MW | Total Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 198 | 56.5 | 120[1] | 374.5 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 105 | 52.1 | 18[2] | 175.1 |
| Kosovo | 0 | 11.1 | 9[3][4] | 20.1 |
| North Macedonia | 55 | 141.9 | 309.1[5] | 506 |
| Montenegro | 0 | 3.2 | 24.9[6] | 28.1 |
| Serbia | 0 | 39.6 | 17.5[7] | 57.1 |
| Regional Total | 358 | 304.4 | 498.5 | 1160.9 |
Figures
Figure 1
Figure 1 sums all of the operating wind capacity above 10 MW and solar capacity above 1 MW by country.
Figure 2
Figure 2 sums all of the prospective wind capacity above 10 MW and solar capacity above 20 MW by country.
Figure 3
Figure 3 sums the capacity of utility-scale solar projects above 20 MW and wind projects at or above 10 MW that are under construction, in pre-construction, and announced by country.
Figure 4
Figure 4 plots the estimated generation from all solar, wind, and gas projects with a determined start year. Additional annual electricity generation from each new project is summed to show the cumulative increase in electricity as new projects come online.
Maps
Map 1
Map 1 plots the location and capacity of all operating wind and solar projects in the Western Balkans greater and equal to 10 and 1 MW respectively.
Map 2
Map 2 lays out the location and capacity of all prospective wind and solar projects in the Western Balkans greater and equal to 10 and 20 MW respectively.
Tables
Table 1
Table 2
- ↑ Todorović, Igor (2023-09-01). "Prosumers in Albania reach 120 MW in total capacity". Balkan Green Energy News. Retrieved 2024-07-15.
- ↑ Couture, Toby D. (November 2020). "Scaling-up Distributed Solar PV in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Market Analysis and Policy Recommendations" (PDF). E3 Analytics. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2024-03-05. Retrieved 2024-03-05.
- ↑ Departamenti:Operatori i Sistemit (2024). "INSTALLED CAPACITIES OF GENERATION IN KOSOVO 2024" (PDF). KOSTT.
{{cite web}}:|archive-url=requires|archive-date=(help) - ↑ "Solar blossoms - Lirika Demiri". Kosovo 2.0. 2023-07-24. Retrieved 2024-07-15.
- ↑ "Годишен извештај за работењето на РКЕ во 2023 година" (PDF). РЕГУЛАТОРНА КОМИСИЈА ЗА ЕНЕРГЕТИКА И ВОДНИ УСЛУГИ И УСЛУГИ. 2024-04-25.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Todorović, Igor (2024-01-16). "Montenegro's EPCG vows to put solar panels on every roof in country". Balkan Green Energy News. Retrieved 2024-07-15.
- ↑ Energy Community Secretariat (June 2023). "ENERGY COMMUNITY CBAM-Readiness Tracker" (PDF). Energy Community.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
