Power Sector Transition in Bali

This article is part of the Global Energy Transition Tracker project sponsored by Global Energy Monitor

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Introduction

Bali is one of 38 provinces in Indonesia. The province encompasses the island of Bali and the smaller islands of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan, and Nusa Ceningan situated toward the southeast. Per Indonesia's 2020 decennial census, Bali province had a population of 4.31 million, and the Java-Bali Island accounts for approximately 70% of Indonesia's national electricity demand.

On September 28, 2020, Bali Governor Wayan Koster signed the “Bali Province Regional Regulation 9 of 2020 concerning the General Regional Energy Plan for Bali Province for 2020-2050.” This Regional Energy Plan (RUED), henceforth referred to as Bali RUED 2020-2050, was developed by the Office of Manpower, Energy, and Mineral Resources of Bali Province to fulfill the requirements of the national-level Energy Law No. 20/2007 (described below). RUED 2020-50 set Bali’s renewable targets: the goal was to reach 11.5% (228MW) of renewable energy in the power mix by 2025 and 20.1% (537) MW in 2050, including capacity from biomass.

Energy Law No. 20/2007 established a legal framework for the management, utilization, and development of energy resources in Indonesia. The law codified the establishment of the National Energy Council and authorized provincial governments to formulate regional master plans and regulations on energy. While the law did not outline specific energy mix targets, it emphasized the importance of having a balanced energy mix.

On November 13, 2022, the Head of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division in the Office of Manpower, Energy, and Mineral Resources of Bali Province, announced the provincial government’s plans to achieve Net Zero Emission (NZE) targets in 2045, 15 years ahead of the national target of 2060. The official also said the development of new renewable energy (NRE) projects in Bali would be conducted in stages starting 2021-2030. The announcement was part of a press release issued by the Communications and Media Team for the 2022 G20 Presidency of Indonesia.

Symbolic Importance

Bali’s longtime quest for energy independence makes it a crucial opportunity zone for the energy transition. Bali has pioneered several regional regulations and policies toward the Bali Net Zero Emissions 2045 initiative (see Government Policies and Targets), making it a standout location for the energy transition. Despite this public commitment, renewable energy accounted for less than 2% of Bali’s electricity generation in 2022. As of 2019, 69.7% of Bali’s 1,320 MW energy demand was sourced from local fossil fuel energy sources, and the country relied on coal power from East Java for an estimated 30% of its demand. A coal phaseout combined with growth of renewable energy could enable a significant shift for both East Java and Bali. With a population of 4.3 million in 2020, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan, the government estimates the iconic holiday island’s consumption will hit 2,000 MW by 2025, driven mainly by increased tourism.

According to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division of the Bali Province Manpower and Energy and Mineral Resources Office, the energy transition in Bali has its unique value in the country: "Bali is a pioneer province in preparing various regional regulations and policies in the use of clean energy in line with supporting the primary energy mix towards Bali NZE in 2045.", which is 15 years earlier than the country's goal.

Current System Description

Current Power Capacity Mix

Bali's installed capacity from 2022-2023. Source: Regulations regarding the comprehensive energy plan of Bali (2020-2050) (RUED) (No. 9/2020), IESR(2022), GEM

Despite only having 0.3 GW of solar and 0.15 GW of wind in 2022, Indonesia is expected to have 100 GW of total wind and solar by 2030.

According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in Indonesia in 2019, the installed capacity providing Bali's electricity demand was 1,320MW. 30.3% of Bali's energy demand was sourced from Java, and 69.7% was sourced from local fossil fuel energy sources. The ministry expected the demand will grow to 2,000MW by increased tourism in 2025. Therefore, the minister of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Ignasius Jonan, said in 2019 that the official expected to supply an additional 350 MW from renewables in Bali by 2025.

In 2020, Bali provided a capacity of 1,261.2MW. Among these capacities, 921.2MW(73.4%) came from local Bali generators, and the other 340MW(26.6%) were from power plants outside Bali, such as the submarine cable from Paiton to Gilimanuk with a capacity of 340 MW from fossil fuel(SKTL 1,2,3 dan 4).

In 2022, renewable energy accounted for less than 2% of electricity generation in Bali.

Installed Capacity in Bali province* (1 MW and above)

#	Name of Power Plant	Official/local name	Installed Capacity (MW)	Energy Type
1	Celukan Bawang power station	PLTU Celukan Bawang	380	Coal
2	Pesanggaran gas-fired power plant	PLTG Pesanggaran	226 MW	Gas
3	Pesanggaran power station	PLTDG Pesanggaran	200 MW	Oil, Gas
4	Gilimanuk power station	PLTG Gilimanuk	134 MW	Gas
5	Pemaron gas-fired power plant	PLTG Pemaron	98 MW	Gas
6	Pesanggaran diesel power plant	PLTD B Pesanggaran	54 MW	Oil
7	Nusa Penida diesel power plant	PLTD Nusa Penida	5 MW	Oil
8	Nusa Penida hybrid solar power plant	PLTS Nusa Penida	3.5 MW	Solar, Oil
9	Mall Bali Galeria solar power plant	PLTS proyek, Mall Bali Galeria	1.5 MW	Solar
10	Panji Muara micro hydroelectric power plant	PLTMH Panji Muara	1.4 MW	Hydro
11	Kayubihi solar power plant	PLTS Kayubihi	1 MW	Solar
12	Kubu solar power plant	PLTS Kubu	1 MW	Solar

Total capacity (1 MW and above): 1,105.4 MW

*Note: The table above does not include the 340 MW Paiton-Gilimanuk submarine cable (transporting power generated from fossil fuels) since the power is not technically generated in Bali province.

Prospective Power Capacity

Nationally, Indonesia requires 110 GW of wind and solar by 2030 in order to meet future electricity demand while phasing out coal.

• Prospective Solar Capacity: Prospective solar projects total 50.387 MW.
• Prospective Wind Capacity: 40.7 MW in total (some located on Nusa Penida island)
• Prospective Mini-hydro Capacity: 1.27 MW in total

Renewable Energy in Bali

Renewable Targets

Data Source: Regulations regarding the comprehensive energy plan of Bali (2020-2050) (RUED) (No. 9/2020), IESR(2022), GEM. Graph produced by GEM.

Regulations regarding the comprehensive energy plan of Bali (2020-2050) (RUED) (No. 9/2020) published in 2020. The regulations set the targets for various energy sources. For renewable energy, the target is to reach 11.5% in the power mix in 2025 and 20.1% in 2050:

Target of Power Sources Percentage in Bali

Energy Source	2015	2025	2050
Coal	19.6%	3.3%	0%
Gas	4.4%	56.2%	34.9%
Petoleum	75.7%	29.3%	45%
NRE(New Renewable Energy)	0.3%	11.5%	20.1%

From the power source mix target, the installed capacity target was formulated accordingly. The island targets to reach renewable energy of 228MW by 2025 and 537MW by 2050(including a few from biomass). Targets for each renewable energy source are as below:

Renewable Target in Bali

Energy Source	2025 target	2050 target
Solar	223MW(10MW from roof-top)	520MW(20MW from roof-top)
Wind	1.3MW	4MW
Mini-hydro	2.8MW	6MW
Tidal	0MW	4MW

The target for biomass is 0.9MW by 2025 and 3MW by 2050

• National level: The Indonesian government set a target for renewable energy of 23% in the system by 2025, and 34% by 2030.. Almost half of the provinces in the country set an energy mix from 7% to 23% of renewable energy, which is lower than the target at the national level(including Bali) This would contribute to Indonesia's goal of peak power sector emissions of 290 MT CO2 by 2030. In addition, Indonesia raised its emissions reduction target in its Nationally Determined Contribution to 31.89% unconditionally or 43.20% conditionally.

• Other target mentioned in policy: The local government of Bali has issued government regulation no 45 of 2019 concerning Bali Clean Energy, one of which regulates the adoption of rooftop solar power plants on buildings with a certain area, both public and private buildings. For rooftop solar target: 7.5MWp by 2025

Major Renewable Projects

Operating Projects

Project	Energy Type	Capacity	Status
PLTS Nusa Penida(Hybrid Solar Power Plant)*	Solar	3.5MW	Operating
Bali-Mandara Toll Road Solar Power Plant	Solar	0.4MW	Operating
Kayubihi, Bangli Regency	Solar	1MW	Operating
Kubu, Karangasem Regency	Solar	1MW	Operating
Bali Galeria Mall	Solar	1.5MW	Operating
Across 9 regencies	Solar	3.4MW	Operating. PLN on-grid rooftop PV
Klungkung, Karangasem, and Bangli Regency	Solar	0.16MW	Operating
Perusda Bali	Solar	0.0066MW	Operating. Used for fast charging .
PT. Tirta Investama (AQUA Mambal), Badung	Solar	0.47MW	Operating
PT. Toyota Astra Motor and petrol stations across Bali	Solar	0.54MW	Operating
PLTMH 1 dan 2 Panji Muara Raya	Mini-hydro	1.8MW	Operating

* PLTS Nusa Penida is located on Nusa Penida Island, Klungkung, Bali

Projects in Pipeline

Project	Energy Type	Capacity	Status(Refer to the methodology of Global Energy Monitor)
Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport	Solar	0.155MW	Planned(2022)
Petrol stations across 9 regencies	Solar	0.132MW	Planned(2022)
Coca-Cola Company Solar Installation	Solar	Unknown	Consultation Process(2022)
Official government buildings BKPSDM	Solar	0.025MW	Planned(2022)
Official government buildings BPBD	Solar	0.025MW	Planned(2022)
Official government buildings Karangasem’s regent office	Solar	0.05MW	Planned(2022)
Bali-2 solar farmPLTS in east Bali(Hybrid Solar Power Plant)	Solar	25MW	Pre-construction(2023)
Bali-2 solar farmPLTS in west Bali(Hybrid Solar Power Plant)	Solar	25MW	Pre-construction(2023)
Nusa Penida wind farm on Nusa Penida	Wind	0.7MW	Shortly operated in 2007 but stop now due to technical reasons
Lembongan wind farm on Nusa Penida	Wind	20MW	Announced(2023)
Bali Utara wind farm	Wind	20MW	Announced(2023)
Titab Mini-hydro	Mini-hydro	1.3MW	Planned(2023)

• PT PLN (Persero) Bali Main Distribution Unit is committed to adding new renewable energy projects by building rooftop Solar Power Plants (PLTS) with a capacity of 489.72 kilowatt peak (kwp) in 35 office building locations owned by PLN UID Bali and 1 building owned by PT Indonesia Power. Further details on the exact installed capacity are needed.

• Other energy source: The Bedugul Geothermal Field, which is run by Bali Energy Limited (BEL) under the Joint Operation Contract (JOC) and Energy Sales Contract (ESC) with PERTAMINA and Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN) for 30 years, has drilled 6 temperature gradient core holes (TCH) and 3 exploration wells to develop energy supply for the Bali province. The project was halted in 1995 due to a large local protest. Nowadays locals believe the construction has caused irreversible environmental damage including gas leaking and flooding. The central government asked the Bali province to proceed with the project but was rejected.

Renewable Energy Potentials

In 2017, Asian Development Bank published Geographic Information System-Based Decision Support System for Renewable Energy Development: An Indonesian Case Study research. The total estimated technical potential from solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass amounts to 115,372 GWh/year with solar energy contributing to 98% of the total energy yield. This shows that even if 5% of this technical potential can be developed, the projected energy requirement of 4,993 GWh/year in Bali by 2019 can be entirely met.

In 2020, the Regulations regarding the comprehensive energy plan of Bali (2020-2050) (RUED) (No. 9/2020) listed the technical validation and survey measurements for potential of renewable energy:

• Solar: 1,254 MW
• Wind: 1,019 MW
• Mini Hydro: 15 MW
• Tidal: 320 MW
• Geothermal: 262 MW

Potential from other energy sources:

• Bioenergy: 191.6 MW
• Hydro: 208 MW

According to another research from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) in 2022, Bali is capable of producing 10,000 megawatts (MW) of solar energy. The study also mentioned that Indonesia can explore other potential sources, including 37 MW of waste-to-energy and 1,000 MW of wind power. Bali also has great potential for rooftop solar - Quoted from the Institute of Essential Energy Reform, “The market potential in the household sector reaches 23%, or equivalent to 256,000 households."

Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook 2023, Jakarta: Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).December 2022

The Energy Outlook 2023 published by the Institute for Essential Services Reform(IESR) presented the total potential of renewable energy in different energy systems in the country. For the Java-Bali system. The energy potential that has not been fully discovered is as listed: Solar (with potential of 657GW), wind (potential of 1.78GW), hydro (potential of 0.77GW), and biomass (potential of 0.99GW)

Case Insights: The influence of socio-cultural perspectives on the energy transition narrative in Bali, Vanessa Hildegard Harsamto (IESR), December 2022

For wind energy, IRENA estimated that the total potential is 9.3 GW, and 85% of the resources are located in the Java-Bali, Sulawesi, and Nusa Tenggara regions. Considering the geological conditions and the electricity demands in different regions, IRENA expected that there is 2.6 GW of wind energy can be developed by 2030, and 74% of the capacity is in the Java-Bali region.

Potential impacts from renewable expansion

LTS Nusa Penida (Hybrid Solar Power Plant), which is located in Nusa Penida Island, generated a total capacity of 3.5 MW. The contribution from the power plant can reduce emissions of 4,190 tons of CO2e per year.

In 2022, the International Energy Agency analyzed integrating floating solar into the existing Java-Bali grid system at the behest of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The study found that floating solar to be complementary to hydropower. In general, floating solar may improve water security by reducing evaporation, and its adaptability makes it compatible with reservoirs, degraded land, and other areas of minimal land use conflicts. There is a lack of long-term data illustrating the environmental risks of floating solar, but some have raised concerns about potential impacts on ecosystems receiving less sunlight, as well as effects on aquatic systems by reducing evaporation.

Fossil Fuel in Bali

Fossil resources and retirement

Two coal power plants, Bali Power Station and Karang Asem power station are cancelled. That said, Indonesia and Australia are the two largest exporters of coal, with related investments both countries expected to increase by ~5% in 2024.

Celukan Bawang power station started operation in 2015. At that time, Bali was suffering from an energy shortage due to the growing electricity demand from tourism. Building a coal-fired power plant became the first priority for the province to maintain its tourist industry. Currently, 3 out of 5 units of the Celukan Bawang power station are already in operation.

Overview of current fossil fuel impacts

Celukan Bawang Coal Power Station, North Bali, Indonesia, Environmental Justice Atlas, 2019-11-05

Local fishing communities in northern Bali have been protesting for years against the two units of the Celukan Bawang power station. Currently, three out of five units of the plant are already in operation. 5,200 tons of coal is being burned in the plant every day. The power station began operating in 2015, though land acquisition began in 2002. At that time, little information about the land's use was provided to residents, and the former village lead of Celukan Bawang refused to sign construction permits during his tenure.

According to the local fisheries, the total catch has been reduced since the plant started operating. Greenpeace is one of the organizations supporting local protests. In 2018, Greenpeace published a briefing revealing the social and environmental impact of the Celukan Bawang power station. The report revealed that there exist controversies over land acquisition process that local people did not consent to the current project and did not receive proper compensation. Greenpeace also reported that the power plant is having destructive impacts on the farmlands, fisheries, land, and sea. The expansion of the power plant is going to further worsen the air, water, and crop qualities. There is a national park, the West Bali National Park, nearby where the wildlife habitat is affected as well.

According to the Air Quality Life Index, residents of Bali would experience an average life expectancy increase of 0.75 years if PM2.5 pollution was reduced to World Health Organization guidelines.

Employment

Current employment by sector

623 workers are employed at the Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) Unit Induk Distribusi (UID) Bali, as of 2021; of that, an unknown portion of the total is working in fossil fuel power plants.

Prospective employment

As the province transitions from coal-fired power to clean power, a large number of new jobs will likely be created. According to the 2021 report from CASE Indonesia, 50 direct jobs per megawatt of installed capacity can be created in the residential solar sector in Indonesia. Another study in Bali further showed that a 2,000-unit (9.1 MWp) residential solar deployment may involve 270 direct jobs, 270 indirect jobs, and 170 induced jobs. This total implies 30 direct jobs per megawatt and an additional 48.4 indirect and induced jobs per megawatt.

The Indonesian Solar Energy Association (ISEA) has taken an active interest in developing entrepreneurial job opportunities in the rooftop solar PV sector. Anthony Utomo, Deputy Chairperson of the ISEA, was quoted in an article by the Institute for Essential Services Reform as advocating for a program that will produce 1,000 "Solarpreneurs," also known as reliable energy SMEs.

Since the tourism industry takes up the majority of electricity consumption in Bali (40% from the residential sector and 50% from business consumers), expanding roof-top solar deployment on hotels and private buildings would majorly drive the installed capacity from renewables and the employment opportunity derived from these rooftop projects.

The Government of Indonesia projects that JETP investments will create approximately 383,000 jobs by 2030, primarily in managerial, technical, and highly-skilled roles. An estimated 9 to 14 jobs could be created for every USD $1 million spent on the construction of AC transmission lines, while 3 to 4 jobs could be created for the same amount spent on DC line construction.

Land availability

To the extent that a transition from an electrical system based primarily on fossil fuels to one relying on renewable energy can be done using rooftop solar PV, it will not require additional land. A study by the 100% Renewable Energy team at the Australian National University estimated that 7-19% of the land requirements across the national as a whole could be accommodated on residential, commercial, and industrial rooftops, building facades, and other urban areas. Other sources of land and open water for solar cited in the study included inland reservoirs and abandoned mines, as well as "a vast maritime area that almost never experiences strong winds or large waves that could host float solar."

At the same time, decommissioning the current fleet of power stations will free up land that could be repurposed for solar or wind power. New solar farms between 1 MW and 20 MW in capacity using fixed panels will require 4.4-7.6 acres per gigawatt-hour of power per year, and solar farms above 20 MW using fixed panels will require 3.7-7.5 acres per gigawatt-hour per year, according to the National Renewable Energy Lab. Bali's official target is to reach 213 MW of ground-mounted solar PV in 2025, as well as 500MW of ground-mounted solar PV in 2050.

In any conversion of land from fossil to renewable usage or development of new land for solar or wind, careful attention will be required to protect local ecosystems and communities (see Social and Environmental Impacts). Lands in Bali have certain restrictions to protect the cultural and environmental landscape. The map below shows the suitable land scale to deploy solar energy excluding protected and restricted lands.

Bali’s solar PV technical potential, Beyond 207 Gigawatts: Unleashing Indonesia’s Solar Potential, IESR, 2021

Furthermore, the situation of agricultural land loss has become severe in Bali. From 2017 to 2022, agricultural land in Denpasar, Bali reduced by 538 hectares. The shrinkage is due to the large number of land conversions, from green areas to buildings sold by the owners. Denpasar City Agriculture Service designated 900 ha as protected rice fields as part of the Sustainable Food Agricultural Land (LP2B) in order to alleviate the land conversion. This measure of protecting land would also put new changes on the potential land availability for solar development on the island.

Supply Chain

Indonesia’s newly released JETP implementation plan highlights supply chain development, especially expanded nickel mining for use in batteries, as a major priority for the funding. Indonesia’s continued subsidies for fossil fuel infrastructure may hinder clean energy supply chain development. Indonesia’s share of global mined nickel production increased to 52% in 2023.

Governmental information

Related government policies and papers

The government of Bali Province is committed to supporting the energy transition, as demonstrated through various regional regulations. These regulations cover various sectors including clean energy and renewable energy, environmentally friendly transportation, and waste management transformation:

• Ministry of Industry Regulation No. 54/M-IND/PER/03/2012: Requirements for foreign investments in renewable energy projects are regulated under it, with the guidelines for the utilization of local products for the development of electricity infrastructure.

• Government Regulation No. 79/2014 Concerning the National Energy Policy: Guides national energy management with respect to national energy independence and security. Aims to encourage domestic energy production and sustainable development.

• Regulation No.45 / 2019 Bali Clean Energy: One of the regulations is to adopt rooftop solar on buildings with a certain area, both public and private buildings, and the rooftop solar target is 7.5 MWp in 2025.

• Governor of Bali Regulation Number 48 of 2019: Concerning Battery-Based Electric Motor Vehicles (KBLBB)

• Bali Provincial Regulation No. 9/2020 on Bali Province Regional Energy General Plan (RUED) 2020-2050: To prioritize the use of Clean Energy (renewables and natural gas) to help Bali become an energy independent region. The regulations establish targets for vaious energy sources. For renewable energy, the target is to reach 11.5% in the power mix by 2025 and 20.1% by 2050. The enactment of the Regional Regulation is in accordance with the mandate as stipulated in Article 18 paragraph (2) of Law Number 30 of 2007 concerning Energy. Bali government has created guidelines accordingly to develop and utilize energy in the regions in 2020-2050 to make Bali independently produce its own clean energy.” The regulations aim to maintain the sanctity and harmony of Bali's nature in accordance with the vision of "Nangun Sat Kerthi Loka Bali" in realizing a clean, green and beautiful Bali Island by building an environmentally-friendly clean energy system imbued with the philosophy of Tri Hita Karana sourced from values - the value of Sad Kerthi's local wisdom in a single territory, one island, one pattern, and one governance. The "Nangun Sat Kerthi Loka Bali" principle under the Office of Education, Youth and Sports of Bali Province indicates the need for employment in the environmentally-friendly sector.

• Decree of the Governor of Bali No. 123/03-M/HK/2020: Concerning the General Electricity Plan for the Province of Bali for 2020-2039.

• Law No. 7/2021: Includes mandates related to carbon taxes on coal-fired power plants, though coal-fired power plants can also participate in carbon trading (Emissions Trading System, ETS). Under this mechanism, the ETS begins affecting power plants with an installed capacity greater than 100 MW in 2023, and this threshold decreases to 25 MW beginning in 2024. Beginning in 2025, captive power plants will be included, with al other fossil-fuel power plants entering the ETS in 2028.

• MEMR regulation (Permen ESDM) 26/2021 article 5: Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN), which is a state-owned electricity company in Indonesia, plays a key role in the development of renewable energy. From a BBC article, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has long-term contracts with private contractors to get the new power plants built. Tellingly, it bars businesses and individuals on Bali from sourcing more than 15% of their electricity from solar panels, making the installation of rooftop solar for households less economical due to the long payback from the lower capacity. At the same time, the current regulations, Article 5 of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation (Permen) Number 26 of 2021, allow consumers to install a maximum capacity of 100% of the connected power. The limitation of PLN is different from the regulation and causes worries from rooftop solar stakeholders on the development of solar energy.

• Governor of Bali Circular Letter No.5/2022: Concerning rooftop photovoltaic development.

• Presidential Decree 112/2022 on Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity: Encourages decarbonization efforts through several key provisions, including 1) the prioritization of renewable energy resources in power sector planning, 2) a moratorium on future coal-fired power plant development beyond those included in the 2021-2030 Electricity Business Plan, and 3) future coal-fired plants must reduce emissions by 35% after 10 years of operation and retire by 2050.

• Green Bali Plan with Net Zero Emission (NZE): Announced in 2022. Bali aims to achieve net-zero emissions in 2045, which is faster than the national target in 2060. This is under the context of G20 summit held in Bali in September 2022. The plan for the development of NRE power plant union will be conducted in stages starting 2021-2030, including 3.5 MW Nusa Penida solar power plant in 2022, 1.3 MW Titab Reservoir in 2023, and 24 MW of West and East Bali in 2023. In addition, power plants spread from Java to Bali will be able to generate 25 MW in 2030. The total target of produced electricity is 154.8 MW.

In addition, the G20 summit held in Bali in 2022 produced two key agreements for global action: the Bali Compact, which outlines guiding (but voluntary) principles for a secure, inclusive, and efficient energy transition, and the Bali Energy Transitions Roadmap, which intends to increase energy access, deploy and scale clean energy technology, and encourage financing.

Relevant political coalitions

• Direktorat Jenderal EBTKE - Kementerian ESDM (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia Government)

• Just Energy Transition Partnerships: Including U.S. Department of State, the European Union, The Government of Japan, and Government of Canada
  • In addition, the JETP Secretariat coordinates four working groups featuring national agencies and multilateral institutions:
    • Technical Working Group: Aims to define and centralize components into a comprehensive power sector transition roadmap for Indonesia. Led by the International Energy Agency with representation from RMI, the World Bank, the Institute for Essential Services Reform, and the Danish Energy Agency.
    • Finance Working Group: Aims to identify needs and potential sources of financing Indonesia's energy transition. Led by the Asian Development Bank with representation from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, the Climate Poicy Initiative, KfW Development Bank, the French Development Agency, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.
    • Policy Working Group: Aims to identify policy needs and make recommendations for power sector decarbonization in Indonesia. Led by the World Bank with representation from the Program Menuju Transisi Energi Rendah Karbon Indonesia, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Energy Agency.
    • Just Transition Working Group, which aims to create a framework and guide activities toward a Just Energy Transition. Led by the United Nations Development Programme with representation from the Asian Development Bank, the International Labour Organization, the World Bank, the German Agency for International Cooperation, and the Indonesian Center for Environmental Law.

• Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia programme: Jointly implemented by GIZ and international and local expert organisations in the area of sustainable energy transformation and climate change: Agora Energiewende and NewClimate Institute (regional level), the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) in Indonesia, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) in the Philippines, the Energy Research Institute (ERI), Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) in Thailand, and Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition (VIET) in Viet Nam. In Indonesia, CASE is anchored to the Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) – Directorate of Electricity, Telecommunications and Informatics, and jointly implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).

• Menuju Transisi Energi Rendah Karbon Indonesia (MENTARI): A partnership between the governments of Indonesia and the United Kingdom set up to promote the uptake of low-carbon energy, supporting Indonesia’s just energy transition. The programme started in 2020 and is led by the British Embassy Jakarta and Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. It is implemented by a consortium led by Palladium International and composed of Castlerock Consulting, Yayasan Humanis dan Inovasi Sosial (Hivos), and Economic Consulting Associates (ECA).

• Southeast Asian Energy Transition Partnership (ETP) is a five-year, multi-donor partnership formed by governmental and philanthropic partners to accelerate sustainable energy transition in Southeast Asia in line with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. It has now worked on countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

• Australia and Indonesia announced a climate partnership in late 2023 focused on fostering Indonesia's energy transition. By encouraging and leveraging private sector finance, the partnership hopes to accelerate net-zero outcomes by encouraging deployment of electric vehicles and investing in green infrastructure.

Transmission and Grid Infrastructure

Current transmission resources

According to the IEA in 2020, the Java-Bali power system is the largest in the country, accounting for 64% of Indonesia’s installed capacity. Bali’s energy demand is expected to grow to 2,000 MW by 2025 due to increased tourism, so the Government of Indonesia has planned to strengthen transmission capacity from East Java at the same time as it increases internal energy supply.

In 2018, more than 90% of the households in Bali had access to electricity, which is one of the highest energy access rates in the country. In 2021, the electrification rate in East Java reached 98%, while it was 100% in Bali.

Currently, the transmission infrastructure between East Java and Bali is linked by four 150kv undersea cables to transfer 400MW. The first two cable lines were commissioned in 1999 and 2000 with 200MW each; the other two cable lines with 200MW each were later commissioned in 2014. According to PLN. 2019. Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL/Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik), 2019–2028. Jakarta, the four 150 kV transmission lines were expected to be decommissioned in 2024 when the Java–Bali Crossing transmission lines were to begin operation.

Map of Electric Power System in Bali RENCANA USAHA PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK(RUPTL) PT PLN(Pesero) 2021-2030

New transmission needed

To meet Indonesia's national energy targets, an estimated 6,000 kilometers of additional transmission lines will be required by 2030 and 15,000 kilometers by 2040. Transmission will require over 80% of the estimated capital expenses under Indonesia's JETP scenario. An estimated total of USD $42 billion in investments will be made by 2040 to establish and strengthen interconnections between the Java-Madura-Bali system with nearby islands. Two such projects are discussed below.

Java Bali Connection 500 kV Project

In 2020's regulations, one of the programs is "Facilitating the construction of transmission, distribution and substation networks mains including the Java Bali Connection (JBC) 500 kV"

The Java Bali Connection 500 kV (JBC) is a National Strategic Project (PSN) set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on January 3, 2022. The project will be a 500kv line with a length of 220 km, including 18.6 km along the periphery of Baluran Park in East Java and 10 km along the periphery of Bali Barat National Park (BBNP). Updated in December 2022, the new transmission line is expected to start operating in 2025.

This new extra high-voltage line is expected to support transmitting 1,500 MW of capacity. According to the Asian Development Bank, "it extends a 500/150 kilovolt (kV) substation in East Java, builds a new 500/150 kV substation in Antosari, Bali, and upgrades 11 150/20 kV substations." The ADB has loaned $224 million for this project This is also the only interconnection transmission line across Java and Bali.

Upgrade and Extend of the associated 11 substations under Java-Bali 500kv project. Source: Indonesia: Java–Bali 500-Kilovolt Power Transmission Crossing Project, Asian Development Bank, Feb-2021

Transmission project map and National Park Zones. Source: Indonesia: Java–Bali 500-Kilovolt Power Transmission Crossing Project, Asian Development Bank, Feb-2021

Java–Bali Power Distribution Strengthening Project

The PLN East Java and Bali Distribution Strengthening Project, which received financing from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in January 2021, is a 5-year loaning project to support the regional policy on increasing electricity access and improving the quality of electricity distribution. The end date of the loan period is in December 2025.

According to the project document of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB), the Project will "support the implementation of Indonesia’s rolling 10-year Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) (2019-2028) in East Java and Bali, currently under the management of PLN’s Java, Madura and Bali Regional Development Directorate (JMB)."

The total cost of the project is USD 1,205.23 million; of that, USD 310 million is financed by Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and USD 895.23 million is financed by Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN).

The planned activities under the project include:

• Component A - Installation of additional length of medium-voltage (MV) distribution lines: Construction of about 17,496 kilometers (km) of medium-voltage distribution lines and associated equipment. The distribution line is a 20 kV medium-voltage line. The associated equipment includes automatic meter reading to reduce distribution losses attributable to the theft of electricity.
• Component B - Installation of additional length of low-voltage (LV) distribution lines: Construction of around 14,947 km of low-voltage distribution lines.
• Component C - Installation of transformers: About 1,504 megavolt-amperes (MVA) of medium-voltage (MV) distribution transformers.

Future plans for Java-Bali transmission:

• Planning on over 12,000KM transmission line extension by 2030
• Development of Java-Bali 150 kV loop protection
• Sumatra-Java interconnection study

Social and environmental impacts of new transmission

According to the Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) report, there will be no land acquisition needed due to the scale of the project. However, there may be environmental concerns to the local ecosystem, project workers, and the communities: "Environmental risks are principally induced by the establishment of the network across natural habitats and potential impact on fauna (in particular avifauna and terrestrial fauna susceptible to access the distribution lines or transformers such as monkeys or other tree-dwelling scavenging animals that frequent semi-urban environments), and the management of waste (e.g. end-of-life transformers, in particular, the mineral oil they contain). During the construction phase, construction and maintenance activities present significant occupational health and safety risks to project workers (including company employees, contractors, and sub-contractors), as well as potentially resulting in nuisances to communities (temporary nuisances during construction and visual nuisance while installed), as well as presenting risks to communities in case of an unplanned event (e.g. fall of the pole during weather event)."

According to the Asian Development Bank report, four substations including the Paiton substation and Paiton-Watudodol in East Java, and Gilimanuk–New Kapal TL and New Kapal Substation in Bali have been canceled due to a land permit issue.

Grid Infrastructure

From the analysis of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) in 2022, the grid in Bali is sufficient to support the future growth of penetration from renewables: "Higher penetration of solar power in Bali system has minimum effect on grid stability and power quality. Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) analysis shows that with the existing condition and additional planned utility-scale and distributed solar power plants, disturbance on several solar power plants does not impose risks on the power grid. The level of distributed solar PV penetration possible to be accommodated by the power grid depends on the areas assessed; the tourism center area allows penetration of up to 27% of its transformer capacity, while urban and suburban feeders are lower. It is feasible to increase the level of penetration by operating high-voltage Java Bali Connection(JBC) or operation adjustment of existing conventional power plants and the planned utility-scale solar power plants."

In 2023, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) analysis shows that the current Bali-Java grid system "is capable of hosting as much as 15% solar penetration using flexibility means in the system."

At the national level, the renewable energy penetration rate is around 10%-13% in 2023, but mainly from hydropower and geothermal. The government targets to reach 23% in the total energy mix by 2025 and achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

At the current penetration level of less than 1% variable renewable energy (VREs), specifically solar and wind, in the power generation mix, their intermittency will have no relevant impact on the power system (typically must be at least 3% to become noticeable).

From IRENA's report, it predicted a total of USD $80 billion in investment is needed for grid infrastructure development by 2030.

Ownership

Major owners of current fossil capacity

China Huadian Group Corporation, the parent company of Celukan Bawang power station. 700 million US dollars of investment, with loans from the China Development Bank (CDB).

Major owners of prospective renewables

Hitachi Energy built microgrid with 3MW/3MWh e-meshTM PowerStoreTM Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) for the 3.5MW PLTS Nusa Penida (Hybrid Solar Power Plant).

The 2 solar power plants are both owned by PT Medco Power Indonesia; Solar PPA Philippines.

The solar company in Bali, PT SatuWatt Solar Dewata, is advocating a campaign called "Save Bali Go Solar" to raise rooftop solar capacity in Bali.

Finance

Potential providers of wind and solar finance

Public Finance

• When the Bali Clean Energy Regulation was published in 2019, several investors appeared, including PT Gas, Pertamina, and Indonesia Power, which are state-owned. After announcing the 2019 Bali Clean Energy, the British Government and the Bali Province seek cooperation opportunities on clean energy.

• The Asian Development Bank approved a regular (commercial) $500 Million for Indonesia on green recovery. An unknown portion of this loan was spent on energy efficient street lighting in Bali. An additional $500 million was provided to Indonesia by the Asian Development Bank in September 2024. This funding is intended to accelerate Indonesia's energy transition by developing a Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP).

• The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) provided a sovereign-backed loan of $310 Million for the Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) East Java & Bali Power Distribution Strengthening Project. (The total cost of the project is USD 1,205.23 million. The rest of USD 895.23 million is financed by Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). The period of the implementation is from 2021 to 2028. The loan, while provided by AIIB, had the Republic of Indonesia as its Guarantor.

• In 2023, Indonesia-UK Cooperation Program Towards Indonesia’s Low Carbon Energy Transition Menuju Transisi Energi Rendah Karbon Indonesia (MENTARI), officially extended its concluding year from 2024 to 2027. The UK has also pledged an additional GBP 6.5 million (IDR 135 billion) to support Indonesia’s Net Zero Emission (NZE) target and enhance the country’s commitment to a low-carbon future.

Just Energy Transition Partnerships

In November 2022, the Indonesian government announced that they have secured a USD $20 billion in pledged support from ten International Partners Group countries, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and Climate Investment Funds, which is the highest financial aid in the country's history. The project is called "Just Energy Transition Partnerships" (JETPs) and the goal is to assist Indonesia to deploy renewable energy in the next three to five years. Grants make up only 2.6% of financing committed in support of JETP. 55% of Indonesia's JETP funding is tied to specific projects, which has created financing challenges for the projects outlined in the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan.

In November 2023, the Government of Indonesia released a draft implementation plan for the JETP funds. The plan aims to cap emissions from the power sector at 250 megatons of CO2 by 2030, increase renewable energy share to 44% of power generation by 2030, and reach net-zero emissions in the power sector by 2050. Additionally, the plan allocates tranches of funding for specific purposes: $19.7 billion for new transmission lines and grid upgrades, $2.4 billion for retiring and/or retrofitting coal-fired plants, $49.2 billion to construct 16.1 GW of dispatchable renewable capacity, $25.7 billion for 40.4 GW of wind and solar, and an unknown amount for developing Indonesia’s clean energy supply chain capabilities. The plan also includes provisions to support independent power producers where PLN would purchase privately generated electricity. These provisions have been criticizes by organizations like the Trade Unions for Energy Democracy, who argue against electricity development for commodification as well as the potential negative impact for workers.

Public Finance

Indonesia is one of four recipients of Japan’s Asia Zero Emission Community initiative, which will provide USD$8 billion for energy projects by 2030.

At least USD $10 billion in public finance has been committed by the International Partners Group (IPG), consisting of the Governments of Canada, Denmark, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK, with a goal of securing an additional USD $10 billion in private finance. Approximately USD $153.8 million has been allocated for grant funding, and USD $6.9 billion in concessional loans is to be disbursed by multilateral development banks and development finance institutions. Finally, an estimated USD $8.4 billion in concessional loans has been committed by the International Partners Group, though these loans will require guarantees from the State. Because of this, concessional loans intended for JETP programs must be given to state-owned entities only. The UK and United States have agreed to provide a total of USD $2 billion in guarantees that can be accessed by Indonesia after the country's single borrower limit is reached.

In general, 5-25% of a company's total equity can go toward long-term development planning. Approximately USD $384.5 million in equity funding has been committed by private equity firms from the International Partners Group, namely the Norwegian Investment Fund and the Investment Fund for Developing Countries.

Private Finance

Since Indonesia's JETP announcement, USD $10 billion in private finance has been pledged by large institutions, namely Bank of America, Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Macquarie, MUFG, and Standard Chartered. There are three primary mechanisms for delivering private finance for JETP implementation:

1. Commercial debt, i.e. loans (non-concessional)
2. Equity investments
3. Capital market instruments like bonds

Other

The state-owned China Development Bank (CDB) loaned $473 million dollars to the construction of Celukan Bawang Coal-Fired Power Plant.

State-owned company PT Brantas Energi is investing in mini-hydro in Bali now. This is under the Menuju Transisi Energi Rendah Karbon Indonesia (MENTARI), the UK-Indonesia Low Carbon Energy Partnership, with several hydropower with a total investment of IDR 21 billion (around $1.4 Million).

Articles and resources

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