Power Sector Transition in Sindh

From Global Energy Monitor

Introduction

Sindh Province in Pakistan has significant coal reserves and abundant renewable energy potential. Pakistan, ranked fifth among the countries most affected by climate change, currently faces economic and energy crises, stemming from circular debt, dependence on import fuels, as well as dilapidated energy infrastructure.[1][2][3][4] Sindh is developing both domestic coal and renewables in pursuit of energy security.[5] However, with renewables becoming less expensive than coal, the development of renewable energy over coal may help avoid the higher costs and negative impacts of coal, including GHG emissions, pollution, displacement and loss of livelihood.[6][7] Notably, Thar coal may have replaced some of the more expensive imported coal and benefited the local population, however, the locals continue protesting against the development of coal with the adverse effects on air and water quality, land, and human rights (see Civil Society Engagement below).[8][9] The power transition in Sindh faces numerous challenges, including political instability, vested interests in coal, and renewable policy inconsistencies against the national economic and political backdrop. However, with China, the pioneer investor in coal development in Sindh, pledging no new coal projects abroad, and global pressures to decarbonize, Pakistan, and specifically coal-rich Sindh, may have a greater chance to finance and develop renewable projects while phasing out coal.[10][11]

Symbolic Importance

A power transition from fossil fuels to renewables in coal-rich Sindh, with indigenous communities taking the brunt of the adverse effects of Thar coal projects, may alleviate these effects, contribute to economic growth and energy security, and subsequently reduce the dependence on imports and the national circular debt.

Current System Description

Current Power Capacity Mix

Energy Source Installed Capacity, MW
Oil & Gas Power[12] 6,114.3
Coal Power[13] 4,738
Nuclear Power[14] 2,200
Wind Power[15] 1,841
Large Utility-Scale Solar Power[16] 75
Medium Utility-Scale Solar Power[16] 39.5
Hydropower 0
Bioenergy 0
Total 15,007.8

Prospective Power Capacity

Energy Source Announced, MW Pre-construction, MW Construction, MW Total, MW
Coal Power[13] 0 3,710* 660 4,370
Large Utility-Scale Solar[16] 1,115 50 200 1,365
Wind Power[15] 748 0 0 748
Total 1,863 3,760 860 6,483

*permitted, pre-permit

Renewable Energy in Sindh

Renewable Energy Targets

The government of the Sindh Province appears to follow the targets set by the national Alternative and Renewable Energy policy, 2019:[17][18]

  • Pakistan intends to have 20% of its total electricity generation capacity from wind and solar by 2025 and 30% by 2030.


Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submission, 2021:[19][20]

  • Pakistan intends to set a cumulative ambitious conditional target of an overall 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with a 15% reduction from the country’s own resources and a 35% reduction subjected to the provision of international grant finance.
  • To reach the target, Pakistan aims to shift to 60% renewable energy, and 30% electric vehicles by 2030.
  • Starting in 2020, new coal plants are subject to a moratorium with no new generation from imported coal allowed. This decision was backtracked on in early 2023 after the Government of Pakistan unveiled plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired capacity.[21]

Major Renewable Energy Projects

Unless otherwise cited, all data pulled from Global Energy Monitor's Nuclear, Wind, and Solar Power Trackers.[14][15][16]

Operating Renewable Energy Projects in Sindh, Pakistan, greater or equal to 100 MW

Project Name Energy Source Installed Capacity, MW Status
Karachi Nuclear Power Plant Nuclear 2,200 Operating
China Three Gorges Third wind farm Wind 150 Operating
Sapphire-Tricon wind farm Wind 150 Operating
Foundation Wind Energy wind farm Wind 100 Operating
Sukkur solar project[22] Solar 150 MW Operating

Prospective Renewable Energy Projects in Sindh, Pakistan, greater or equal to 100 MW

Project Name Energy Source Installed Capacity, MW Status
Oracle Green Hydrogen solar farm Solar 700 Announced
Thatta (Siachen) solar farm Solar 200 Announced
Nooriabad solar farm Solar 150 Announced
Sukkur solar farm Solar 150 Construction
Oracle Green Hydrogen wind farm Wind 500 Announced
Norinco wind farm Wind 100 Announced

Shelved and Cancelled Renewable Energy Projects in Sindh, Pakistan, greater or equal to 100 MW

Project Name Energy Source Installed Capacity, MW Status
NBT wind farm Wind 500 Cancelled
Manjhand solar farm Solar 400 Cancelled
Aerem Energy wind farm Wind 250 Shelved
AES wind farm Wind 150 Cancelled

In addition to these projects, the Sindh Solar Energy Project is a large-scale project that aims to increase the generation of and access to solar energy in Sindh. The project has four primary components: 1) leverage auctions and private sector actors in the Province to identify and develop utility-scale solar, 2) install distributed solar resources on government buildings and other public spaces, 3) deploy Solar Home Systems in areas with low or no access to electricity or are otherwise difficult to connect to the grid, and 4) building local capacity and providing technical assistance.[23]

Potential of Renewable Energy

Sindh, alongside neighboring Balochistan, has the greatest potential for solar and wind energy development in Pakistan.

The Jhimpir-Keti Bandar wind corridor has an economically viable wind power potential of 11 GW,[24] with older studies estimating the technically exploitable potential of up to 50 GW.[25] Based on a World Bank study conducted in 2021, Sindh had the potential to accommodate 10,035 MW of renewable energy by 2030, taking account of resource potential, physical constraints, environmental and social restrictions, and existing infrastructure.[26]

The tables below show the photovoltaic power potential and mid power density at 100 m for Sindh, Pakistan.

Gwa3 pakistan sind mean-wind-power-density-at-100m (1)-1.png
Pakistan PVOUT mid-size-map 156x163mm-300dpi v20170301.png

Potential impacts from renewable energy expansion

Similar to coal projects in Sindh, renewable energy projects may cause negative social and environmental impacts. Community members have highlighted loss of livelihood and dispossession of land in response to the Thar Block VI solar plant.[27] In addition, wind and solar can generally affect wildlife habitats and generate waste that's difficult to recycle.[28][29]

Fossil Fuels in Sindh

Fossil Resources and Retirement

Coalfields: According to the Coal Energy Board, there are four coalfields in Sindh: Thar, Badin, Sonda-Jherruk, and Lakhra, with ongoing projects located in the Thar coalfield.[30] Thar coalfield, located in Sindh, possesses reserves of 175 billion tonnes of lignite, the most polluting form of coal.[31] Under consideration for development is the Thar Coalfield Block-VI, which has a reserve of more than 1.4 billion tonnes of lignite. Oracle Power has secured a 30-year lease with ambitions to establish a 1,320-MW coal-fired power plant, as well as solar panels of yet-unknown capacity, though financial close has not yet been reached.[32][33] As of May 2024, Thar Block-VI had completed its detailed feasibility study[34] for its 7.9 million tonnes per annum open-pit mine, with plans to expand the project to 16 million tonnes per annum to support coal-to-gas and coal-to-liquid processes.[35][32]

Active Mines: The Thar Mine has been operating since 2018, with an expansion owned by China's Shanghai Electric Group announced.[36] There are other coal mines in Sindh, such as the Lakhra coal mine,[37] the status of which is uncertain. The mine's objective is to supply the Lakhra power station with coal, which has been mothballed for a few years. Information on privately owned mines such as the Jhimpir coal mine[38] is scarce. There appear to be government subsidies supporting the Thar coal mining industry, which may hinder the transition to renewable energy development and contribute to the circular debt.[39]

Coal Plants: With the oldest coal power plant starting operations in 2017, the majority of the operating coal plants source coal from the Thar Mine. Prospective coal power capacity is also planned to supply fuel from the Thar coal mine. No information on the potential use and repurposing of coal mines or power plants for renewable energy has been found. Notably, according to a World Bank study, Pakistan would require $18 billion for a phaseout of coal projects.[40] The 1,320-MW power plant planned at the Thar Coalfield Block-VI has been met with protests due to "forced displacement from ancestral lands, cultural disruption, and lack of employment opportunities." Employment opportunities are often filled by workers brought in by the developer. Residents have also claimed harassment in regions where they have been relocated, as well as violent crime against women and children since the project began.[41]

In Jamshoro, two in-development 660-MW supercritical coal-fired units are intended to burn a blend of 80% sub-bituminous and 20% domestic lignite coal.[42] In 2023, a representative from AsiaPak Investments announced that the company would invest approximately $50 million to convert both units to run on domestic lignite coal from Thar to avoid reliance on costly imports.[43] This conversion will be complex and would cause significant and continued environmental degradation (see “Current impacts from fossil fuels” below), especially since lignite coal is considered the most harmful form of coal (more sulfur and ash pollution, especially over a power plant's lifetime, for a lower energetic value per unit of mass).[44] As of May 2024, neither of these units have begun generating electricity.[45] The project is funded through an investment from the Asian Development Bank of $900 million and joined by $150 million from the Islamic Development Bank and $450 million from the Government of Pakistan, for a total project budget of $1.5 billion.[42]

Oil and Gas: Sindh Province also has significant oil and gas fields. Pakistan Petroleum Ltd operates the following fields in Sindh: Kandhkot gas field, Chachar gas field, Mazarani gas field, Hala block, Gambat South block, and Shahbandar block.[46] OGDCL discovered oil and gas in the Sanghar district in Sindh province in 2022.[47] Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), discovered natural gas reserves in the Sajawal district in 2023.[48]

As for oil and gas units, NTDC planned to retire units with a total capacity of 7,339 MW in Pakistan, of which 1,295 MW is in Sindh, from 2023-2031. The units planned to retire are part of Guddu, Jamshoro (which runs on residual fuel oil primarily, especially during winter months when natural gas supply is limited),[49] and Liberty power stations.[50] K-Electric plans to retire 892 MW of units at Gul Ahmed, Tapal and Bin Qasim power stations in 2024-2027, fired with Residual Fuel Oil (RFO), Re-Gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG), and Natural Gas (NG).[51]

With foreign investors leaving Pakistan due to the currency depreciation and circular debt, and generally depleting proven oil and gas reserves, the government still seeks to boost local production of oil and gas to reduce imports.[52][53]

In addition, the Thar Coal Railway Project will be a 105-kilometer line connecting Chorr to Islamkot to ferry coal closer to power stations and industrial users. With an estimated completion date of December 2024, the project aims to reduce reliance on imported coal, which currently costs about USD $2 billion annually.[54] This project will support the Government of Pakistan's goals to increase usage of domestic lignite coal resources, of which Thar is rich.[55]

Current impacts from fossil fuels

Direct effects

Most coal power plants are located in the Thar district and source coal from Thar coal mines. Thar coal projects have had but are not limited to the following effects:

  • Reduced energy costs and increased energy security, given inexpensive and domestically produced coal[56]
  • Employment creation[57]
  • Dispossession of indigenous land and displacement of communities, legal as per Land Acquisition Act (LAA), 1894[58][59]
  • Loss of livelihood, resettlement issues, forced displacement[60][61]
  • Groundwater pollution[62][63]
  • Water insecurity[60][64][62]
  • Air pollution[65]
  • Increased morbidity and mortality risks, estimated at 29,000 air pollution-related deaths over an operating life of 30 years, 40,000 asthma emergency room visits, 19,900 new cases of asthma in children, 32,000 preterm births, 20 million days of work absence (sick leave) and 57,000 years lived with disability related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes and stroke.[65][62]


Indirect effects

Thar coal projects, boosted by the government in pursuit of energy security,[66] may lock in a scenario of dependence on coal, increased emissions, with subsequent direct effects listed above. Foreign investments and multilateral long-term agreements with coal plants in Pakistan may delay the growth of renewable energy despite its economic viability.[67]

A recent documentary, Sukhl Khu (Dry Wells), highlights the burdens that communities near the Thar coal power plants are forced to deal with. High water requirements for the plant's operations have resulted in a lower water table, which makes it difficult for existing wells to access groundwater, and the water that is accessed is contaminated. One village resident states that saline in his water has killed income-generating livestock (30 cows and 20 goats before the project down to one cow and 25 goats at the time of the documentary). Protests led by locals were met by police activity.[68]

Long-term and multiplier effects include increased risks of socioeconomic insecurity driven by water and air pollution, exacerbated by concurrent effects of the climate crisis such as heatwaves, floods,[69] and water scarcity.[70] In particular, Karachi's infrastructure and low-income residents are vulnerable to extreme flooding, and greenhouse gas emissions have been linked to shorter but more intense monsoon seasons. This flooding has increased incidences of vector-borne diseases like leptospirosis and malaria, and transmission of diseases like dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis spread quickly in densely populated cities like Karachi. Furthermore, flooding in 2022 affected 33 million individuals and fully displaced 8 million, and a particularly bad heatwave event in 2015 killed 1,200 within ten days.[71][72]

According to the Air Quality Life Index, decreasing particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) pollution to World Health Organization guidelines (5 µg/m³) would increase life expectancy in Sindh by an estimated 3.23 years. In 2021, PM2.5 pollution was an estimated 37.94 µg/m³.[73] Particulate matter pollution contributes to illnesses like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular diseases, strokes, and pneumonia, which is the leading cause of child mortality in Karachi.[71]

Environmental degradation related to climate change and its effects could have severe impacts on Pakistan's economy with the national GDP reducing by 18-20% by 2050.[72]

Employment

Pakistan as a whole deals with issues of underemployment. Of those who fall within working age (aged 15-64), only 60% were in the labor force despite published unemployment rates sitting below 5%. Furthermore, far fewer women participated in the labor force than men (20-40% vs. 70-80%, respectively, depending on province).[74]

Current employment from the fossil fuel sector

Statistics on current employment in the coal mining sector in Sindh were not found. There are a few facts regarding labor in coal mines:

  • Companies often prefer to bring in skilled workers from outside the province, citing a lack of local technical expertise. Groups of 150-200 workers are typically brought in from Punjab, and these contractors oftentimes hold a "negative perception" of locals.[75]
According to a report by the National Commission for Human Rights, as of December 2018, 3,584 workers were employed for mining work, of which 3,329 came from Tharparkar. 3,286 individuals were employed at the power plant with 1,070 of those from Tharparkar, 1,479 from China, and 744 from other parts of Pakistan.[75]
  • Safety is a major concern across Pakistan, attributed to a lack of labor law and coal mine regulations, leading to numerous deaths yearly.[76]
  • The latest Occupation Safety and Health Act 2017 legislated by the Sindh government does not include the minerals and mining sector.[77]
  • Other issues include but are not limited to child labor,[78] torture[79], illegal confinement.

Prospective employment from the renewable energy sector

National level

A 2022 study conducted by the World Bank estimated the number of jobs created in Pakistan per megawatt of renewable energy installed, summarized in the table below:[80]

Wind (onshore) Solar PV (grid-scale) Solar PV (distributed)
Manufacturing 0.2 4.4 4.4
Development and Preconstruction 1.2 0.2 5
Construction 2.5 5.5 11
Operation and Maintenance 1.2 0.8 2.1

The exact numbers of jobs projected depend on the scenario. The Renewable Energy Policy of 2019 would generate 295,610 jobs (173,888 direct and 121,722 indirect) in a high wind pathway, or 333,797 jobs (196,351 direct and 137,446 indirect) in a high solar PV pathway nationwide. Alternatively, following the IGCEP would generate 274,681 jobs (161,577 direct and 113,104 indirect).[81] An estimated 75% of these jobs would be considered semiskilled or unskilled.[74]

Province level, Sindh

Based on the World Bank methodology mentioned above and GEM data, current prospective capacity for onshore wind power and large utility-scale solar are estimated to create the following number of jobs in Sindh:

Wind (onshore) Solar PV (grid-scale) Total
Manufacturing 149.6 6006 6155.6
Development and Preconstruction 897.6 273 1170.6
Construction 1870 7507.5 9377.5
Operation and Maintenance 897.6 1092 1989.6
Total 3814.8 14878.5 18693.3

Note: the table above applied the findings from a national study, with scenarios and assumptions tailored to Pakistan, therefore may not be accurate or representative of job creation in the Sindh province.

Moreover, the World Bank estimated job creation potential through the Sindh Solar Energy Project (SSEP). Of the 28 solar PV projects initiated by SSEP, 900 people totaling 817 job-years were employed in the design, construction, operation, and maintenance phases. Operations and maintenance alone are expected to generate 1,137 job-years in the long-term. Women have been underrepresented in SSEP employment so far, with only four women hired in management, administration, logistics, or engineering roles at the time of the World Bank's analysis in 2023.[74]

Land availability

According to GEM data, there are no coal mines or industrial areas identified to be repurposed for siting renewable energy.

The Sindh government implemented the "Land Grant Policy" for independent power producers (IPPs) to develop wind farms.[82] The "Sindh Land Grant Policy for Renewable Energy Projects, 2015" aims to offer lease agreements for up to 30 years at favorable terms for investors in renewable energy.[83][84]

According to the IEA report, an average utility-scale solar PV project of 100 MW generally occupies from 1 km² to 3 km², while a 100 MW onshore wind turbine project generally covers from 5 km² to 30 km².[85]

Based on these estimates, the current prospective 1,365 MW of utility-scale solar will require from 13.65 km² to 40.95 km², and the current prospective 748 MW of onshore wind will require from 37.4 km² to 224.4 km².

Civil Society Engagement

Several organizations are active in Sindh and work to advance clean energy and halt expansion of fossil fuel generation. One such organization is the People's Tribunal on Thar Coal. By leveraging the wide array of expertise and perspectives present in communities affected by Thar (and across Pakistan), the People's Tribune aims to "provide a processual framework for the range of disparate work taking place in opposition to the ever-increasing role of coal in Pakistan's energy sector." The Tribune convenes community members impacted by coal extraction, transport, and generation as well as activists, lawyers, and renewable energy industry representatives. Workstreams consist of drafting an indictment against the coal facility with community concerns and testimony highlighted, convening stakeholders, evidentiary hearings, and a final judgement passed by a jury of residents and international experts.[86]

The People's Tribunal is a campaign of the Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy (ACJCE), a network organization working toward Pakistan's just energy transition.[87] Other member organizations of ACJCE include the Indus Consortium for Humanitarian, Environmental and Development Initiatives, the Alternative Law Collective, The Knowledge Forum, the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), and Lok Sujag.[88]

Another organization active in Sindh is the Sindh Community Foundation (SCF). SCF was established in 2001 to support outreach to young people, women and girls, low-income urban residents, and rural communities, and since its inception, SCF has joined the Global Disaster Risk Reduction Network and is accredited with the Green Climate Fund. One of the Foundation's many focus areas is climate and environmental justice, and in 2022, SCF was awarded the Gender Just Climate Solution award at COP27 for their work "advancing labor rights of women cotton workers in rising temperature and climate change impacts in Sindh." Its work sits at the intersection of climate, human rights, labor, disaster risk reduction, and public health, all of which contribute to a just energy transition.[89]

SCOPE, or the Society for Conservation and Protection of Environment, works across Sindh and Balochistan to build local capacity, conduct research and advocacy, and mobilize communities to fight against desertification and other effects of climate change. SCOPE has eight primary thematic areas: Combating Drought and Desertification, Sustainable Land Management, Land Governance and Land Rights, Renewable Energy, Water and Sanitation, Natural Resource Management and Conservation of Biodiversity, Climate Adaptation, and Sustainable Agriculture and Livelihoods.[90]

Additionally, Uptrade administers a "Goats for Solar" program that allows off-grid and rural communities to trade livestock for solar-powered technology like lighting, fans, televisions, radios, and mobile phone charging stations. The project currently operates in Somalia and Pakistan.[91]

There have been multiple protests and civil society engagement around fossil fuel development in Sindh.

  • Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum (PFF) conducted a six-week-long campaign in Sindh in 2019 demanding a coal phaseout and an end to coal mining in Thar.[92]
  • Thar Samaji Tehreek protested against the human rights violations in coal mining in Thar.[93]
  • The Bheel Intellectual Forum, an independent group working for the rights of the Scheduled Caste community, organized the protest on December 22, 2020, mostly comprised of the Scheduled Caste Hindu community and residents of Tharparkar and Umerkot districts.[94]
  • More than 3,000 joined the Pakistan Climate March organized by Pakistan Kissan Rabita, Hari Jedojehad Committee (Peasant’s Struggle Committee), Labor Education Foundation, Railway Workers Union, Tameer e Nau Women Workers Union and Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum (PFF). PFF, Indus Consortium, Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), Railway Workers Union, Haqooq e Khalq Party and Pakistan Bhatta Mazdoor Union organized another march in Karachi.[95][96]
  • Representatives of Knowledge Forum, Sustainable Development Foundation, and Social Workers Union demanded action to protect the rights of the residents near oil and gas fields in Sindh in 2023.[97]
  • There have been protests in London against the land grab in Sindh by the government.[98]

K-Electric

K-Electric (KE) is Pakistan's only vertically integrated power utility, managing the generation, transmission, and distribution of all its assets. With an installed total capacity of 4,485 MW, the company serves 3.4 million consumers across its 6,500-km² distribution network spanning Karachi and parts of Sindh and Balochistan.[99][100][101]

Thermal power plants represent 97% of K-Electric's installed capacity, with only 100 MW of solar and no wind in its mix. Renewables First and the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development estimate that USD $4.51 billion in savings could be achieved through strategic additions of renewables, coupled with decommissioning of fossil fuel plants, between FY24 and FY30.[101]

K-Electric has established a goal of a 30% share of renewable energy generation mix by 2030, though the Power Acquisition Programme projects that renewable energy penetration in KE's network will only reach 25%. Moreover, the company lacks a distinct fossil fuel reduction target.[101][102][103]

KE's Power Acquisition Plan is mandated by NEPRA and describes the company's long-term planning and strategies for least-cost development pathways. The most recent version of the Plan outlines efforts to increase generation from indigenous and local coal,[20] as well as renewables, namely wind and solar. The Plan highlights several obstacles to implementation, such as the coal moratorium complicating future coal buildout, constraints on the national grid (which KE aims to help address by construction grids at KKI and Dhabeji), and a lack of data about best methods for introducing wind and solar to KE's network.[102]

K-Electric is publicly listed with shares held by KES Power [66.4%], comprised of Al-Jomaih Power Limited of Saudi Arabia, National Industries Group from Kuwait, and the Infrastructure and Growth Capital Fund (IGCF), and the Government of Pakistan [24.36%]. The remaining percentage is comprised of free float shares.[103]

2024 Auctions

As of May 2024, K-Electric is undergoing the auction process for the 200-MW Site Neutral Hybrid (solar and thermal) Power Project. This is novel because it required NEPRA's consent to a bidding approach with greater flexibility, stemming from a "volatile" market. NEPRA agreed to this approach after two public hearings in 2023 but stipulated that KE must cite specific criteria for rejecting bids. Successful bids must consider the costs of equipment, funds, project land, and tariffs that reflect transmission and wheeling. KE will retain up to 25% of the special project vehicle's equity with oversight from the winning bidder. Concerns have been raised about the validity of bidder pre-qualifications given the adjustments to the bidding structure since applicants' submissions, though no resubmissions have been requested at this time.[104] NEPRA's approval for KE's adjusted bidding system did not designate a date for auction.[105]

Governmental information

Related governmental policies and papers

Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act 1997 empowered the provinces to construct power houses, grid stations and lay transmission lines within the province.

Article 157 of the Constitution of Pakistan[24] empowered the provinces to build power stations, and construct grids and transmission lines on their own within their territories and for their use, as well as determine tariffs for power distribution exclusively in their territorial limits.

Power Generation Policy 2002 empowered the provinces to develop power generation projects up to 50 MW.

The government of the Sindh Province adopted the national "Alternative and Renewable Energy policy, 2019" which provides fiscal and financial incentives.[17][18][106]

National Electricity Policy, 2021 introduced reforms in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, a high share of indigenous clean energy resources, and privatization of state-owned enterprises (especially the DISCOs).

The "Sindh Land Grant Policy for Renewable Energy Projects, 2015" aims to offer lease agreements for up to 30 years at favorable terms for investors in renewable energy.

"Fast Track Solar PV Initiatives, 2022"[107][108] targets to add approximately 10,000 MW of solar power to the grid in three phases:

  1. 6,000 MW of utility-scale solar as a substitute for imported fuel;
  2. Induction of 2,000 MW of solar power into 11 KV feeders;
  3. Addition of 1,000 MW through solarization of public buildings.


The policy package provides land, guarantees off-take for 25 years, offers tax breaks and a 70% dollar indexed tariff.[109] The request for proposals has been extended thrice but no bids were received. Potential reasons include the benchmark tariff being low and the market not being mature enough.[109]

"Sindh Regulation of Electric Power Services Bill, 2023" established the Sindh Electric Power Regulatory Authority (SEPRA).

Notably, policy shifts have been identified as a barrier to renewable energy development. For instance, the current government actively promotes local coal, while the previous government signaled coal power exit. In another example, a few solar and wind projects in development were delayed with the introduction of the new Fast Track Solar PV Initiatives program. The decision was later reversed in February 2019. However, the projects had already been delayed by 3-4 years. A project developer communicated that his company no longer planned to invest in the wind market of Pakistan due to ad hoc policy decisions.  

Finally, renegotiations of tariffs were detrimental to renewable energy development, reducing the return on equity (ROE) and adversely impacting the investors' trust in the government.[110]

Permitting Process

Renewable energy development in Pakistan was procured through tariff regimes, namely Feed-in Tariff (FIT) and cost-plus tariff. These were discontinued in 2016, with an abrupt transition to auctions.[7] In 2019, a total of 145 solar and wind projects in development through the tariff regimes in Pakistan were categorized into three stages and allowed to proceed to commercial operation.[7]

As per Alternative and Renewable Energy policy (2019), renewable energy projects are subject to auctions. The Market Operator or a Distribution Company (DISCO) and the National Grid Company (NTDC) agree on capacity addition before the auction.[106]

The three modes of procurement are competitive bidding, government-to-government (G2G), and unsolicited projects.

Competitive bidding, expected to be the most common, includes the following steps:[106]

  • PPIB (formerly AEDB) announces the auction, taking into account Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) outputs, interconnection-ready nodes, and other technical considerations.
  • Bidders provide bid guarantees and performance guarantees according to the bid documents.
  • Feasibility studies are not required.
  • The lowest evaluated tariff is the primary criterion in the bid evaluation method.
  • The steering committee prepares the contract package to be approved by the PPIB and NEPRA.
  • The Provincial Energy Department conducts bidding using the approved request for proposals (RFP) and contract package.
  • The Provincial Energy Department processes the bidding results, to be approved by NEPRA and awarded the tariff.
  • PPIB awards concessions to successful bidders, who are required to sign the contract.


In 2021, the Energy Minister of Sindh stated that out of the 285 coal mining companies operating in Sindh, only 90 had permits.[111]

Relevant governmental ministries and political coalitions

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)[112]

  • Has the jurisdiction to decide the tariffs for all projects connected to the federal infrastructure (NTDC and DISCOs)
  • Exclusively responsible for regulating the provision of electric power services
  • Specifies procedures and standards for investment programs by generation companies and persons licensed or registered under this Act


National Transmission and Despatch Company

  • A state-owned public limited company that is responsible for all properties, rights, assets, obligations, and liabilities for the grid stations, transmission lines, and networks for 220 kV and 500 kV.[113]


Sindh Transmission and Despatch Company (STDC)

  • Licensed by NEPRA as a provincial grid company[24]
  • the Government of a Province may construct power houses and grid stations and lay transmission lines for use within the Province and determine the tariff for distribution of electricity within the Province and such shall not be called into question by NEPRA.


Sindh Energy Department

  • Has the regional jurisdiction regarding development, generation, supply and distribution of power in Sindh, including rates of supply, tariffs and enactment of legislation.
  • Directorate of Alternate Energy is responsible for the implementation of the Alternative and Renewable Energy policy, 2019, in SIndh.


Sindh Electric Power Regulatory Authority (SEPRA)[114][115]

  • Has the regional jurisdiction to grant, issue, notify, renew and cancel licenses for the electric power services as well as to regulate the electric power services in the province
  • To regulate tariffs, rates, charges and inter-province transmission of electricity
  • To develop, undertake and approve the electric power services without any financial limit and to adjudicate upon disputes between the licensees


Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB)[116]

  • Merged with the Alternative Energy Development Board in 2023[117]
  • Facilitates public sector power and related infrastructure projects in IPP mode
  • Facilitates renewable energy projects on its own or through joint venture or partnership with public or private entities
  • Coordinates with international and national agencies for the promotion and development of renewable energy
  • Acts as a coordinating agency for the commercial application of alternative or renewable technology


Thar Coal and Energy Board

  • Acts as a one-stop organization on behalf of the federal and provincial government to facilitate and coordinate the development and utilization of Thar coal[118]
  • Represents a vested interest to promote the transition of coal plants in Pakistan from imported coal to Thar coal
  • Interests may oppose the power transition and renewable energy development in Sindh
  • Sindh government is 54% partner in the Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company

Transmission

Current transmission resources

As of June 2023, the transmission network of Pakistan is represented in the following table and the complementary map:[119]

Source: NTDC[119]
Grid stations, N Transmission lines, km Transformation Capacity, MVA
500 kV 19 8,825 25,950
220 kV 50 11,672 37,190
±660 kV - 2 x 886 -
Total 69 22,269 63,140

A surge in voltage at a power plant in Sindh Province caused the nationwide blackout on January 24, 2023.[120][121]

The electricity grid was largely constructed in the 1960s and remains lacking in maintenance and investment.[120]

By 2026, NTDC plans to expand the transmission system by up to 30% and total transformation capacity by up to 58%, compared to statistics of June 2023.[119]

Grid stations, N Transmission lines, km Transformation Capacity, MVA
765 kV 2 508 3,600
500 kV 26 11,121 41,050
220 kV 68 15,295 54,880
±660 kV - 2 x 886 -
±500 kV - 2 x 113 -
Total 96 28,922 99,530

New transmission needed for renewables

Weak and insufficient grid infrastructure appears to be the most prominent impediment to renewable energy development.[24] Based on Pakistan's updated nationally determined contributions of 2021, Pakistan needed $20 billion to upgrade the electricity transmission network by 2040, the cost was estimated to increase based on the share of wind and solar power.[20]

The Variable Renewable Energy Locational Study (2020) by the World Bank identified a list of priority sites for wind and solar energy development and estimated the necessary expansion of the transmission system in Sindh based on three scenarios: short-term (2023), medium-term (2025), and long-term (2030) scenarios.[26] The short-term scenario proposed a 500 kV double-circuit transmission line between Matiari to Moro and a 500 kV double-circuit transmission line between Moro to Rahim Yar Khan to be completed by 2023. These two projects are currently planned by 2026.[119] Notably, the short-term scenario included 480 MW of wind and 700 MW of solar capacity addition by 2023. The capacity additions to the wind generation by 2023 surpassed the proposed additions in the study by 130 MW, while the solar capacity addition in 2020-2023 fell short by 675 MW. The study made other propositions on transmission network expansion specific to the sites identified for the medium- and long-term scenarios.

Both the World Bank study and IRENA report recommend extensive infrastructure improvement, including new 132 kV and 220 kV substations and transmission lines.[26][122]

Social and environmental impacts of new transmission

In the most recent NTDC Transmission Investment Plan, projects like the “Evacuation of Power from Wind Power Projects Jhimpir and Gharo Wind Cluster” and “Evacuation of Power from K2/K3 Nuclear Power near Karachi” create social benefits like increased job opportunities, small business services, and overall “uplift” of nearby communities.[119]

Ownership

Major owners of current fossil capacity

Owner Parent company Plant name Capacity, MW
Port Qasim Electric Power Co Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd [51.0%]; Al-Mirqab Capital [49.0%] Port Qasim EPC power station 1320
Thar Coal Block-I Power Generation Co Ltd Shanghai Electric Power Co Ltd Thar Block I power station 1320
Engro PowerGen Thar Pvt Ltd Engro Energy Ltd [50.1%]; China National Machinery Industry Corp [35.0%]; Habib Bank Ltd [9.5%]; Liberty Mills Ltd [5.4%] Thar Block II power station 660
Lucky Electric Power Co Ltd Lucky Cement Port Qasim Lucky power station 660
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim [100%] Fauji Foundation Fauji Fertilizer power station 118
ThalNova Power (Private) [100%] Hubco [37.0%]; Novatex Limited Ltd [26.0%]; Thal Ltd [26.0%]; China National Machinery Industry Corp [10.0%]; Descon [1.0%] ThalNova power station 330
Thar Energy [100%] Hubco [60.0%]; Fauji Foundation [30.0%]; China National Machinery Industry Corp [10.0%] Thar Energy Limited power station 330

Major owners of prospective renewables

Owner Plant name Capacity, MW
Oracle Power PLC Oracle Green Hydrogen solar farm; Oracle Green Hydrogen wind farm 1,200
Siachen Energy LTD Thatta (Siachen) solar farm 200
Scatec ASA [51%]; H1 Holdings [49%] Sukkur solar farm 150
Norinco International CORP LTD Norinco wind farm 100
R.E. Solar PVT LTD Dadu solar farm (Pakistan) 40
ET Solar Thatta (ET) solar farm 25
Scatec ASA [51%]; H1 Holdings [49%] Sukkur solar farm 150
ACT Solar PVT LTD Thatta (ACT) solar farm 50
Artistic Milliners Saleh Pat solar farm 50
Cacho Wind Energy PVT LTD Cacho Wind Farm 50
Trans Atlantic Energy LTD (TAE) Trans Atlantic wind farm 48
Tapal Energy PVT LTD Western Energy wind farm 50

Supply Chain

Most of the equipment necessary for wind and solar energy development has been imported into Pakistan. 90-95% of solar panels and other related equipment are imported from China.[123][124] Vestas, China Three Gorges Corp, United Energy Group, Goldwind, and General Electric dominate the wind energy market in Pakistan.[125]

According to the LLM (locally manufactured) condition written in the Alternative and Renewable Energy policy (2019), plant, machinery and equipment are not exempt from import duties if they are locally manufactured in Pakistan. The LMM condition can be waived for renewable energy projects with a capacity of over 25MW. The waiver is void if the local industry is capable of supplying the required materials according to the specifications and certifications.[106] The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is said to monitor taxation to protect the interests of the local industry.

According to the Framework Guidelines Fast Track Solar PV Initiatives (2022), all machinery, equipment and other related goods and materials necessary for the development of solar projects are exempt from all import duties and taxes.[108]

Policy on the import of renewable energy equipment has been inconsistent in Pakistan.[126] There have been federal fiscal incentives, including exemption of customs duty, sales tax, and income tax on import of machinery, equipment and spares for wind and solar energy.[127][128] As of 2023, there was no duty or tax charged on importing solar panels, but there was up to 21% sales tax on inverters. Central Bank of Pakistan also curbed import of the solar panels in 2023 in an effort to address the lack of foreign currency.[129] A new policy, "Solar Panel and Allied Equipment Manufacturing Policy 2023" has been in the works and has been delayed multiple times.[130] The policy aims to promote domestic manufacturing of equipment, which may require removal of the exemption from import duties and taxes on solar panels and the introduction of exemptions for input materials necessary for domestic production.[130]

The import restrictions have delayed the development of renewable energy in Pakistan, leading to financial losses and potential increases in the costs for the developers and end consumers.[131] In addition, frequent tax revisions and challenges in securing a Letter of Credit (LC) clearance pose significant challenges for investors.[132]

Finance

Pakistan received $2.2 billion in climate finance in 2020, making it the world’s eighth-largest recipient that year. The UK, Germany and Japan were the countries to give the most funds to Pakistan.[133] In 2021, Pakistan received $4 billion in climate finance, 80% of which was mostly invested in renewable energy generation.[134] Approximately 31% of that total comes from private sector sources and 84% came from international actors. The remaining 16% came from domestic sources.[135]

In its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions, Pakistan announced that meeting its emissions targets will require $101 billion in climate finance by 2030 and an additional $65 billion by 2040.[19][20] This includes:

  • $20 billion for replacing under-construction coal projects with hydropower
  • $50 billion for achieving its target of producing 60% of its electricity from renewables including hydropower by 2030
  • $20 billion to upgrade the electricity transmission network by 2040
  • $18 billion for buying out and closing “relatively new coal projects”
  • $13 billion for replacing coal projects with solar.


This would require $7-14 billion per year.[19][20] Other estimates project that USD $348 billion in investments will be required by 2030 for Pakistan to reach its climate and adaptation goals.[135]

Climate Finance for Wind and Solar Projects

Foreign sources: Public Finance

In 2018, the World Bank approved an International Development Association (IDA) credit with 30 years of maturity and a 5-years grace period of US$100 million for the Sindh Solar Energy Project.[136]

In 2021, USAID provided $8 million to launch the Pakistan Private Sector Energy (PPSE) initiative to promote private sector investment in clean energy in Sindh province.[137] USAID also partnered with four local banks to provide a partial loan guarantee to provide financing for clean-energy projects. This partnership has already mobilized $20 million of a planned $54 million in financing for biofuel and solar projects totaling 50 MW.[138]

China remains an important investor in renewable energy in Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, the investments were mostly focused on hydropower as opposed to wind and solar.[139][140]

Foreign sources: Private Finance

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) signify Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and are beneficial for renewable energy development, yet contribute to the circular debt of Pakistan.[141][142]

Domestic sources: Public Finance

The State Bank of Pakistan provides financial assistance to banks through a refinancing scheme, Solar Financing Scheme. The scheme caters to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural needs, enabling banks to finance solar projects in installments.[143][144] Beginning in 2019, the Scheme allowed for sponsors of Power Purchase Agreements, which were excluded initially. However, very few loans were administered in the first five years of the program (423),[145] and as of September 2023, a spokesperson for the State Bank of Pakistan stated that loans through the program were no longer available.[146] According to the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, new allocations to support the program were concluded following an amendment to the State Bank of Pakistan Act Section 20 (5A) stipulating the Bank may not "undertake any quasi-fiscal operations or development finance activities."[147] This, coupled with individual banks running down their renewable energy funds, has essentially halted the program.[148]

The State Bank of Pakistan Financing Scheme for Renewable Energy, revised in 2016, offers concessional financing at a 2% interest rate to commercial banks and development finance institutions for renewable energy projects, with a 6% interest rate to consumers.[149]

The Sindh Enterprise Development Fund was established by the Government of Sindh to invest in small- and medium-sized enterprises by promoting local competitive advantage. The Fund has nine priority clusters: agri-processing, dairy and livestock farming, poultry farming, fisheries, horticulture and floriculture, storage and cold chain, mining and mineral processing, green energy (solar, wind, and bioenergy), and innovation and technology. The Fund has provided approximately PKR 500 million in commercial loans and credit lines as of May 2024.[150]

Domestic sources: Private Finance

The Sindh Enterprise Development Fund estimates that private sector mobilization has totaled PKR 7 billion, and the total economic impact of the Fund is estimated at 10x the total (public and private) investment.[150]

Other

Following floods in 2022 that devastated the country, the Government of Pakistan and the Islamic Development Bank, with co-financing from the World Bank, established a €188.7 million fund for the Sindh Flood Emergency Housing. The project aims to construct and upgrade 700,000 climate-resilient housing for displaced families, as well as 75,000 water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities.[151]

Articles and resources

Related GEM.wiki articles

References

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  140. ↑ "Analysis: China's energy investment in Pakistan, from coal to renewables". The Third Pole. 2022-11-18. Retrieved 2024-02-10.
  141. ↑ Report, Recorder (2023-09-25). "Agreements with IPPs the reason behind power crisis: Shaikhani". Brecorder. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  142. ↑ "Alternative & Renewable Energy Upcoming IPPs – Private Power & Infrastructure Board". www.ppib.gov.pk. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  143. ↑ Solar, Team Alpha. "Active Solar Financing in Pakistan - 2023". Alpha Solar Panel Company in Pakistan. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  144. ↑ "State Bank of Pakistan". www.sbp.org.pk. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  145. ↑ “Solar financing — push needing a shove,” Dawn, September 13 2021
  146. ↑ “A hard fight to glow,” The News International, September 4 2023
  147. ↑ “The State Bank of Pakistan Act, 1956,” State Bank of Pakistan, January 28 2022
  148. ↑ “Greening Pakistan's Future: Facilitating Loans for Electric Vehicles and Distributed Solar PV,” Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, Retrieved May 13 2024
  149. ↑ "The Deep Potential of Pakistan's Climate Finance". thediplomat.com. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  150. ↑ 150.0 150.1 “Sindh Enterprise Development Fund,” Investment Department Sindh, Retrieved May 13 2024
  151. ↑ “IsDB, Pakistan Sign €188.7 Million Financing Agreements for Sindh Flood Housing Reconstruction Project,” Islamic Development Bank, March 23 2024
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