Croatia and fossil gas

From Global Energy Monitor
This article is part of the Global Energy Monitor coverage of fossil gas
Sub-articles:

Nearly 30% of Croatia's total energy supply and 12.85% of the electricity produced comes from fossil gas. Combustible fuels account for 38% of Croatia's installed power generation capacity, a lower proportion than much of the European Union. Still, Croatia's climate plans call for fossil gas to make up for a significant (approximately 20%) portion of its installed power capacity through 2025 and the country had the 11th highest estimated cost of future gas transport infrastructure in the EU in 2022.[1]

Fuel mix (fossil fuels vs renewables)

In 2019, Croatia derived about 73.32% of its total energy supply (TES) from fossil fuels. The breakdown can be seen in the table below:[2]

Total Energy Supply of Croatia by source, adapted from the IEA[2]
2019 (%) change since 2015 (%)
Oil 38.23 -2.04
Fossil gas 29.87 3.16
Coal 18.03 1.01
Biofuels and waste 6.22 -0.83
Hydro 5.23 -2.54
Wind, solar, etc. 2.42 1.23

In February 2020, the Croatian government adopted its "Energy Strategy for the period until 2030." According to the International Trade Administration of the U.S. Department of Commerce, it "includes a wide range of energy policy initiatives" including lowering "dependence on fossil fuels" and increasing "renewable resources." The document predicts that "renewable energy resources as a share of total energy consumption will grow to 36.4% in 2030, and to 65.6% in 2050."[3]

The 2013 National Renewable Energy Action Plan set a target of a 20% renewables share of gross final energy consumption (GFEC). By 2020, Croatia had surpassed that goal, reaching 28.5%.[4]

Croatia's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for 2021-2030 set a goal of increasing shares of renewables to a 36.4% share of GFEC by 2030 and 53-65% by 2050.[4]

Greenhouse gas emissions targets

As of 2020, Croatia's per capita CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (3.5 tCO2) were 30th in Europe.[5]

In 2020, Croatia produced 23.9 million tons of GHG emissions (Co2e) -- about 65% (15.5 Mt Co2e) of which came from the energy sector.[6] National GHG emissions from energy and overall are shown below:

2009-2020 National total and energy specific greenhouse gas emissions expressed as megatons of equivalent, according to the EU Commission.[7]
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Energy 20.52 19.71 19.45 18.04 17.29 16.34 16.59 17.00 17.38 16.44 16.50 15.52
Total 28.59 28.23 27.96 26.22 24.98 24.25 24.71 24.99 25.93 24.96 25.23 23.92

Compared to 1990 levels, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Croatia are down 24% as of 2019.[6] Total CO2 emissions were down 24.58% over the same time period.[2]

Croatia set a 2030 target for a reduction of GHG emissions by 43% in the ETS sectors and 7% for non-ETS emissions compared to 2005.[8] According to Enerdata, "Croatia's Strategy for Low Emissions Development by 2030 with an outlook by 2050 aims to cut GHG emissions by 64-74% in 2050 compared to 1990."[4]

Government energy agencies & other key players

National energy agencies

Ministry of Environmental Protection and Energy (MEE) is the ministry in the Government of Croatia which is in charge of environmental protection.[9]

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development is tasked with the "development and sustainability of the energy sector" through its energy directorate.[10][11] It publishes "Strategies, plans, reports and other documents" including the "Energy Strategy of the Republic of Croatia".

Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar is a wholly state-owned, non-profit scientific institution that supports "the reform processes of state institutions and companies in the energy sector." [3][12][13]

Permitting agencies

Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency (CERA) / Hrvatska energetska regulatorna agencija (HERA) grants licenses for the generation of electricity.[14]

Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency grants licenses for the exploration of hydrocarbon blocks.[15]

Regulatory agencies

Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency (CERA) / Hrvatska energetska regulatorna agencija (HERA) is the regulatory authority for the electricity[3][16][17]and gas sectors.[18]

Croatian Energy Market Operator performs activities of organizing electricity and gas market as a public service, under the supervision of HERA.[3][19]

Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency (CHA) is the regulatory authority for the exploitation of hydrocarbons.[20]

Electric utilities

HEP Proizvodnja is a subsidiary of HEP Group which operates the group's power plants.[21]

Croatian Transmission System Operator / Hrvatski Operator Prijenosnog sustava d.o.o. (HOPS d.o.o) is the sole electricity transmission system operator in the Republic of Croatia, and the owner of the entire Croatian transmission network[22] -- comprised of 7,794 km of transmission lines and 183 substations.[23] HOPS is "functionally independent"[24] after being unbundled from HEP Group in line with the Electricity Market Act, according to the ITO (Independent Transmission Operator) model.[25]

Croatian Electricity Exchange d.o.o. / Hrvatska burza električne energije d.o.o. (CROPEX) is the electricity market administrator.[26] It is equally owned by equally-owned by Croatian Energy Market Operator and HOPS.[27]

Gas Utilities

Plinacro Ltd is the gas transmission system operator in Croatia.[8][28] Its network is 2,693 km.[8]

Leading energy companies

Hrvatska Elektroprivreda (HEP Group) owns most of Croatia’s electricity generation capacity and the transmission system. It is 100% state-owned.[29][30] In 2020, it held 77.2% of production capacity and produced 76.6% of electricity.[26]

INA-Industrija nafte, d.d. lead exploration activities in Croatia in 2017.[31] It plays a key role in oil and gas exploration and production, processing, and distribution.[32] As of 2022, its websites list its ownership structure as 49.1% owned by MOL Group, 44.8% state-owned, and 6.1% of share controlled by private and institutional investors.[33]

Vermilion was awarded four exploration blocks and Oando Plc one in 2016.[34] According to Vermillion, it is the largest onshore landholder in the country.[35]

Electricity usage

According to Bankwatch, Croatia is "somewhat dependent on electricity imports" but this is "partly due to the fact that the Krsko nuclear power plant in Slovenia, of which HEP owns 50 percent, also contributes to Croatia’s electricity supply but is counted under imports in the statistics."[29]

Installed capacity

As of 2020, Croatia's installed capacity was 5,306 MW, with 2,044 MW (38%) coming from fossil fuel power plants.[26] The actual installed generation capacities by generation type from 2016, 2017, and 2020, as well as the projected (in 2019) capacities through 2025 and 2030, are shown below:

Installed generation capacities connected to the power grid, according to the South East Electricity Roadmap[36], the 2019 NECP[8], and HERA 2020[26] *2020 HERA report gave capacities in GW. Figures were converted for comparisons, but are less precise than other given values. **2020 HERA and Hrvoje Požar Energy Institute 2017 reports state this value as the capacity of "Prirodni plin/Lož ulje" (Fossil gas/fuel oil).
Actual Projected
2016[36] 2017[37] 2020[26] 2025[8][38] 2030[8][38]
Generation Type Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Installed Capacity (MW)* Share (%) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%)
Hydro 2,202 44.59 2,206.5 41.25 2,200 41.51 2,158 38.91 2,686 40.88
Coal 330 6.68 315.5 5.90 340 6.42 192 3.46 192 2.92
Fossil gas 689 13.95 1,452.9** 27.16** 1,700** 32.08** 1,147 20.68 1,048 15.95
Wind 422 8.55 576.1 10.77 790 14.91 909 16.39 1,364 20.76
Nuclear 389 7.88 348 6.51 0 0.00 348 6.27 348 5.30
Solar 69 1.40 60 1.12 110 2.08 316 5.70 768 11.69
Biomass -- -- 42 0.79 -- -- 156 2.81 148 2.25
Other 837 16.95 347.6 6.50 160 3.02 320 5.77 17 0.26
Total 4,938 -- 5,348.6 -- 5,300 -- 5,546 -- 6,570 --

Installed capacity projections under two decarbonization scenarios between 2017 and 2050 are shown below:

Installed electric power plant capacity by fuel type, between 2017 and 2050 under two scenarios
Installed electric power plant capacity by fuel type, between 2017 and 2050 under two scenarios. Adapted from the 2030-2050 Croatian Energy Development Strategy[39]

In 2019, Croatia's installed capacity totaled 4.712 GW, ranking 21st in the EU. 37.59% of that capacity came from combustible fuels, a lower percentage than 20 other EU-member states.[6]

In 2018, Croatia's installed capacity totaled 4.618.6 GW. 43% of that capacity came from thermal power plants, 44% came from hydro, and 11% from wind turbines.[40]

In 2016, Croatia's installed capacity totaled 4.921 GW, ranking it 80th in the world.[41] 45% of that capacity came from fossil fuels, zero percent from nuclear, 40% from hydro, and 16% from other renewable sources.[42]

In 2019, 73.7% of the country's combined heat and power (CHP) generation (0.9 GW electricity, 2.2 GW heat) was fueled by fossil gas.[6]

The Te-To Zagreb power station, with 420 MW of capacity as of 2021, is the largest operational gas-fired power plant in Croatia.[43]

As of December of 2021, Croatia had 650 GW of gas-fired power generation capacity in-development according to the Global Gas Plant Tracker.[44]

Gas plants in Croatia, according to the Global Gas Plant Tracker as of 2021.
Gas plants in Croatia, according to the Global Gas Plant Tracker as of 2021. Size is proportional to nameplate capacity. Proposed plants are shown in yellow, operating in brown. For more information see the full dataset.[44]

Production

Croatia generated 13 TWh of electricity in 2020, sourced 25.57% from fossil gas. The breakdown of Croatia's electricity generation by source, according to the IEA, was as shown below in 2020:[2]

Croatia's 2020 Electricity generation by source, adapted from the IEA[2]
Source GWh Share (%) change since 2015 (%)
Hydro 5,810 43.39 -14.10
Nuclear 3,424 25.57 15.07
Natural gas 1,721 12.85 5.87
Coal 1,222 9.13 -11.13
Wind 988 7.38 5.05
Solar PV 96 0.72 0.22
Biofuels 94 0.70 0.70
Oil 35 0.26 -1.68
Total 13,390 100.00 --

With 12.76 TWh of electricity produced, Croatia ranked 21st in the Europe Union in 2019. 2.63 TWh (21%) of that electricity was produced from fossil gas.[6]

With 12.2 TWh of electricity produced, Croatia ranked 95th in the world in 2016.[42]

Consumption

Croatia's gross domestic electricity consumption was 17.23 TWh in 2019, a 21.59% increase from 1990.[2]

Croatia consumed 15.93 TWh of electricity in 2016, 76th in the world.[42]

Fossil Gas Production, Consumption, Sources and Projects in Croatia

Domestic Production

In 2021, Croatia produced 0.78 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, about 30% of its total consumption. New production wells in the Pannonian basin are expected, as of March 2022, to produce an additional 0.29 bcm of gas, bringing total domestic production to more than one billion cubic meters and "cover 40% of domestic demand."[45]

In 2020, according to one expert, Croatia produced enough gas to meet "almost half" of its "needs."[46]

In 2020, Croatia's 741.77 Ktoe of fossil gas represented approximately 19% of the nation's 3568.30 Ktoe of energy produced.[47]

According to the EU Commission, fossil gas production between 2009 and 2020 was as follows:

Croatia fossil gas production by year in million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe), per the EU commission.[7]
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.20 2.21 2.01 1.63 1.51 1.44 1.47 1.37 1.23 1.02 0.85 0.71

In 2019, Croatia's 0.85 Mtoe of fossil gas represented approximately 22% of the nation's 3.90 Mtoe of energy produced.[6]

Hydrocarbon regions in Croatia, according to CHA
Hydrocarbon regions in Croatia, according to the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency.[48]

Croatia's 1.048 billion cubic meters of fossil gas production in 2017 made it the 67th largest producer in the world.[42]

There are three regions in Croatia for hydrocarbon exploration and production: the Pannonian Basin, Dinarides and the Adriatic sea.[31]

According to the European Federation of Geologists, "intensive growth on exploration and production of Oil and Gas in Croatia started in 1952 in the Pannonian basin." As of 2015, there were 54 active fields in the basin, the largest of which were "Molve, Bokšić, Kalinovac, Stari Gradac and Okoli." Between 1941 to 2015, 60 bcm of gas were produced in the Pannonian basin. As of 2014, production from that region was 700,000,000 cubic meters per year.[31]

In the Dinarides, the Ravni Kotari gas field was discovered in 1966. However, as of 2014, there was "no proof on [the] existence of hydrocarbons in commercial quantities" in the Dinarides.[31]

Hydrocarbon fields undergoing exploration as of January 2022, according to the Croatian Hydrocarbon agency
Hydrocarbon fields undergoing exploration as of January 2022, according to the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency (CHA). Fields are shown in yellow. For an interactive full dataset, see CHA's Interactive maps.

Production in the Adriatic sea comes from the Ivana, Ika, Ida, Annamaria, Irina, Ana and Vesna fields.[31]

Croatia's NECP (2019) states that the "exploration of new deposits and hence increasing hydrocarbon production from domestic sources is one of the key factors for increasing domestic oil and gas supply capacity." New hydrocarbon fields are expected to increase production to 2016 levels by 2035. An overview of projected trends from the NECP is shown below:

Fossil gas production estimated through 2050, according to the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan for Croatia
Fossil gas production estimated through 2050, according to the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan for Croatia.[8]

Reserves

Hydrocarbon blocks undergoing exploration and open Hydrocarbon blocks as of January 2022, according to the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency (CHA). For an interactive full dataset, see CHA's Interactive maps.

As of 2021, Croatia held 0.9 trillion cubic feet (24.919 billion cubic meters) of fossil gas reserves.[49][50]

At the start of 2018, Croatia held 24.92 billion cubic meters of proven fossil gas reserves, ranking 71st in the world.[42]

According to the "Analize i podloge za izradu Strategije energetskog razvoja Republike Hrvatske III", there are 57 fields in Croatia - 17 of which are oil fields, 25 are oil and gas, and 15 are gas and condensate. The Pannonian basin is the most significant hydrocarbon area for exploration.[37] The balance of fossil gas reserves between 2000 and 2017 is shown below:

Fossil Gas Reserves in Croatia between 2000 and 2017
Fossil gas reserves in Croatia between 2000 and 2017, according to the Hrvoje Požar Energy Institute[37]

According to the Croatian Hydrocarbon Agency, "in the Northern part of Croatian part of the Adriatic, 22 gas discoveries were found with estimated reserves of approximately 1.3 trillion cubic feet."[51]

Consumption

In 2022, Croatia's fossil gas consumption was estimated to be "around 2.9 billion cubic metres."[52]

In 2020, Croatia consumed 106 billion cubic feet of dry fossil gas.[49] Enerdata states that the country consumed 3.0 bcm in 2020.[4]

In 2019, Croatia consumed 2.41 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) of fossil gas, ranking 19th in the European Union.[6] According to Enerdata, "gas consumption has increased rapidly since 2014 (+3.5%/year), reaching 2.9 bcm in 2019, spurred by the commissioning of the Sisak-3 CCGT power plant in 2015, but fluctuating in accordance with hydropower availability."[4]

In 2017, Croatia consumed 2.577 bcm of fossil gas, the 77th most in the world.[42]

Imports & exports

In 2022, the Croatian economy minster announced that Croatia plans to ban the export of domestically produced natural gas.[53]

In 2020, Croatia was 68.8% dependent on foreign imports for its fossil gas supply.[6][7][54] According to one expert, as of 2020 national production was shrinking, and Croatia's trajectory was to become more dependent on imports.[46]

Croatia's fossil gas imports and exports from 2006-2019 are shown below (in Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)):

Croatia imports and exports of fossil gas in Mtoe, per the EU Commission.[6][7]
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Imports 0.85 0.87 0.71 1.10 1.03 0.94 0.87 1.05 1.51 1.31 1.66 1.78
Exports 0.65 0.39 0.21 0.21 0.31 0.36 0.30 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.04

Croatia imported 1.7 Mtoe of fossil gas in 2020, ranking 20th in the European Union.[54]

Croatia imported 1.66 Mtoe of fossil gas in 2019, ranking 20th in the European Union.[6]

Croatia exported 0.06 Mtoe of fossil gas in 2019, ranking 12th in the European Union.[6]

Croatia imported 2.577 billion cubic meters of fossil gas in 2017, ranking 54th in the world.[41]

Croatia exported 172.7 million cubic meters of fossil gas in 2017, ranking 46th in the world.[41]

According to a Friends of the Earth report, as of 2017, Croatia had "an annual capacity to import three times more gas than it [consumes]."[55]

Transport

Map of Gas Infrastructure in Croatia
Map of Gas Infrastructure in Croatia, from the 2019 NECP, sourced from Plinacro[8]

As of 2019, Croatia's network of natural gas pipelines spans 2,693 km. A map of the pipelines that make up the network can be found in the NECP and in the sidebar.[8]

With 840 km of pipeline projects in development, Croatia ranked 27th in the world in terms of planned expansion by length in 2021.[56] With 398,569 BOE/d of pipeline projects in development, Croatia ranked 16th in the world in terms of planned expansion by capacity in 2020.[57]

The estimated total cost of new gas transport infrastructure (pipelines and LNG terminals) was 1,677 million euros in 2022.[1]

Croatia had the 11th highest estimate cost of future gas transport infrastructure in the EU in 2022.[1]

Croatian pipelines in-development, as of 2021 according to GFIT, can be seen on the map below:[58]

Proposed and under construction pipelines in Croatia as of 2021
Proposed and under construction pipelines in Croatia as of 2021, according to the Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. Proposed pipelines are shown in yellow and under-construction plants are shown in red. See the Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker Interactive Map for more information

Krk LNG Terminal, as of 2021, has an import capacity of 2 million tonnes of LNG. An expansion was proposed in 2020 with a capacity of 4.4 billion cubic meters per year. Due to environmental and economic concerns, the terminal remains largely unpopular among local residents. According to Food and Water Europe, "...the project is now strongly opposed by all local municipalities from Krk Island, the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County and by local environmental NGOs." In March 2018, thousands of protestors gathered in Rijeka, Croatia to oppose the terminal.[59]

Hydrogen

As of 2020, INA was assessing using its refinery in Rijeka to produce and supply blue/green hydrogen.[60]

In February 2021, Croatia began its process of drafting the Croatian National Hydrogen Strategy in the period from 2021 to 2050. The goal of that strategy was the decarbonization of hydrogen production and the use of hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels.[61] Croatian parliament adopted a plan in 2022[62] to install electrolyzers with a capacity of 70 MW by 2030 and 2,750 MW by 2050. Previously, the country had announced plans for first hydrogen production in 2025.[63]

Croatia's NECP calls for the role of hydrogen in its energy and transport systems is expected to gradually uptake by 2030. Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking commissioned a study on the 'Role of Hydrogen in the National Energy and Climate Plans for Croatia.' The study suggests that in a high and low scenario between 26 and 150 MW electrolyzer (respectively) would be added to the countries energy system. Most of the hydrogen produced would be used in industry.[60]

Suspensions of Oil and Gas Exploration in Croatia

Moratoria

According to the Fossil Fuel Policy Tracker, Croatia does not have any fossil fuel related moratoria, limits, nor bans in place, as of November 2022.[64]

In 2016, Prime Minister Tim Oreskovic announced that Croatia intended to proclaim ''a moratorium on the plan regarding the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons'', in the Adriatic Sea.[65] Other reports stated that Oreskovic was willing to talk about exploration of fossil gas, but only in the mainland.[66] However, as of January 2022, there were active exploration fields in the Adriatic Sea.[67]

Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance

Croatia did not join the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) at COP26 in 2021.[68][69]

Socio-Economic Impact of the Fossil Gas Industry

Workforce

According to estimates cited by the European Commission, in 2020 there were zero enterprises in the "Extraction of Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas" sector, 20 in "Support Activities for Petroleum & Natural Gas Extraction" and 569 in "Electricity, Gas, Steam & Air Conditioning Supply." However, that EU says only five people are employed by the 20 enterprises in oil and gas extraction support activities. 14,671 people were employed in the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sector.[70]According to estimates cited by the European Commission, in 2019 there were three enterprises in the "Extraction of Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas" sector, six in "Support Activities for Petroleum & Natural Gas Extraction" and 645 in "Electricity, Gas, Steam & Air Conditioning Supply." 59 people were employed directly in petroleum and fossil gas extraction with an additional 1,893 in support activities for oil and gas extraction. 18,403 people were employed in the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sector.[70]

Opposition to Fossil Infrastructure

Zelena Akcija and Eko Kvarner are among the groups opposing fossil gas infrastructure in Croatia.[71] Fossil-Free Europe contributed to the "Debunking the Myths of Croatia's KRK Gas Terminal" report.[55]

Corporate Europe Observatory critiqued "the Croatian Government’s love affair with the fossil fuel industry" and INA's "sponsorship contract with the Croatian Government for its six month [EU] Council presidency" in 2020.[32]

References

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  52. ↑ "Croatia's sole gas storage at 90%, PM says". www.euractiv.com. 2022-09-30. Retrieved 2022-11-08.
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  54. ↑ 54.0 54.1 "EU energy in figures : statistical pocketbook 2022". op.europa.eu. 2022-09-22. Retrieved 2022-11-08.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 "PIPEDREAM DEBUNKING THE MYTHS OF CROATIA'S KRK GAS TERMINAL" (PDF). Stop Climate Chaos. December 2018. Retrieved January 26, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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